####018007429#### AXPZ20 KNHC 030434 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 0405 UTC Fri Oct 3 2025 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from 03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0335 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Tropical Storm Octave is centered near 12.9N 119.6W at 03/0300 UTC, moving west-northwest at 6 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 997 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 50 kt with gusts to 60 kt. Peak seas are currently around 18 ft (5.5 m). Numerous moderate to strong convection is observed from 11N to 15N and between 118W and 130W. Octave is moving toward the west- northwest and this general motion is expected to continue for the next couple of days. Over the weekend, Octave is forecast to turn sharply eastward. Little change in strength is forecast during the next 48 hours followed by some gradual strengthening. Please read the latest HIGH SEAS FORECAST issued by the National Hurricane Center at website - https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFEP2.shtml and the latest Octave NHC Forecast/Advisory and Public Advisory at www.hurricanes.gov for more details. Offshore of the Southwestern Coast of Mexico (Invest EP99): Shower and thunderstorm activity has increased in association with a trough of low pressure located a few hundred miles off the coast of southern and southwestern Mexico. Environmental conditions appear conducive for gradual development, and a tropical depression is likely to form by the weekend while the system moves generally west-northwestward, remaining parallel to but offshore of the southwestern coast of Mexico. Interests along the southwestern coast of Mexico should monitor the progress of this system. This system has a high chance for tropical cyclone formation within the next 48 hours. Please read the latest TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK issued by the National Hurricane Center at website - https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATWOEP.shtml for more details. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... The monsoon trough extends from 12N87W to 10N96W to a 1009 mb low pres near 13N103W to 16N110W. The monsoon trough resumes from 12N123W to beyond 09N140W. Scattered moderate and isolated strong convection is present from 05N to 17N and east of 110W. ...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... Please refer to the Special Features for details on Tropical Storm Octave located well SW of the offshore waters, and on a trough of low pressure offshore of SW Mexico with the potential for tropical cyclone formation. A 1026 mb high pressure well west of California extends southeastward to the Revillagigedo Islands, supporting moderate to locally fresh northerly winds in the offshore waters of Baja California Norte. Seas in these waters are 7-10 ft. Light to gentle winds and slight to moderate seas are noted in the remainder of the Baja California and SW Mexican offshore waters and the Gulf of California. Farther south, moderate to fresh northerly winds and moderate seas are found in the Gulf of Tehuantepec. Moderate to fresh easterly winds and moderate seas are occurring south of 16N and west of 97W. For the forecast, moderate to fresh N-NE winds will pulse in the Gulf of Tehuantepec through early Sat, locally strong at times. Moderate to locally fresh winds will persist offshore Baja California N of Cabo San Lazaro through the remainder of the week and into Sat, locally strong near Punta Eugenia at times. Long period NW swell off Baja California Norte will support rough seas in the outer waters through Sat night. Shower and thunderstorm activity has increased in association with a trough of low pressure located a few hundred miles off the coast of southern and southwestern Mexico. Environmental conditions appear conducive for gradual development, and a tropical depression is likely to form by the weekend while the system moves generally west- northwestward, remaining parallel to but offshore of the southwestern coast of Mexico. Interests along the southwestern coast of Mexico should monitor the progress of this system. There is a high chance for tropical development in the next 48 hours. Regardless of development, expect increasing winds and seas over these waters. ...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms continue to affect the offshore waters of Central America. A weak pressure gradient persist across the region, supporting moderate or weaker winds and moderate seas. For the forecast, mostly light to gentle winds will prevail N of the monsoon trough. Gentle to moderate S to SW winds are expected S of the monsoon trough. Southerly swell will build slightly Fri into the upcoming weekend. ...REMAINDER OF THE AREA... Please refer to the Special Features for details on Tropical Storm Octave, and on a trough of low pressure offshore of SW Mexico with the potential for tropical cyclone formation. Outside of Octave, a stationary front extends from 30N127W to 24N140W. Farther south, the remnant low of Narda is centered near 23N131W. The pressure gradient between the front, ex-Narda and a subtropical ridge north of the area sustain moderate fresh N-NE winds and rough seas north of 20N and west of 130W. Meanwhile, a long-period NW swell has reached the NE waters, resulting in seas of 8-10 ft. Moderate to locally fresh southerly winds and moderate seas are found south of the monsoon trough. Elsewhere, moderate or lighter winds and moderate seas prevail. For the forecast, Tropical Storm Octave is near 12.9N 119.6W at 8 PM PDT, and is moving west-northwest at 6 kt. Maximum sustained winds are 50 kt with gusts to 60 kt, and the minimum central pressure is 997 mb. Octave will move to 13.2N 120.5W Fri morning, 13.8N 121.8W Fri evening, 14.4N 122.9W Sat morning, 14.8N 123.6W Sat evening, 15.2N 123.8W Sun morning, and 15.5N 123.3W Sun evening. Octave will change little in intensity as it moves to the 15.7N 121.3W late Mon. The remnant low of Narda will drift W-SW and gradually spin down, and open up into a trough tonight. The area of NW swell will impact the northern waters, spreading eastward to near Baja California through the end of the week. High pressure to the NW of the area will build southeastward into the NW waters, with moderate to locally fresh N to NE winds gradually expanding there by the end of the week into the weekend. Winds will increase to fresh to locally strong S of the monsoon trough, mainly E of 125W by the end of the week into the weekend, as an area of low pressure possibly develops into a tropical cyclone offshore of SW Mexico. These winds may build seas to rough S of the monsoon trough. Meanwhile, a new set of large southerly swell will propagate toward the equator during the upcoming weekend. $$ Delgado