####018005988#### AXNT20 KNHC 030614 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 0615 UTC Fri Oct 3 2025 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of America, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0550 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Atlantic Gale Warning and large swell: The post-tropical low of Imelda is N of the area near 32N54W. A cold front extends from the low SW to near 23N66W where it transitions to a stationary front, which tails end in a 1013 mb low over the central Bahamas near 25N75W. Scatterometer data show gales N of the low center where also heavy showers and tstms are occuring. Gale force winds around the post-tropical low of Imelda are covering the waters N of 30N between 47W and 52W. Seas 12 ft or greater in mixed NE and NW swell generated from this system cover the waters N of 23N between 48W and 80W, with seas peaking around 21 ft near N of 30N between 51W and 58W. The post- tropical low of Imelda will shift NE. The gale force winds around the low will shift N of the area tonight as the system continues moving further away from the area. Gale force winds N of the front tail low will also diminish below gale later this morning. The large swell, and associated 12 ft seas, will gradually subside below 12 ft by Sun evening. Please read the latest High Seas Forecast issued by the National Hurricane Center at website https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml for more information. ...TROPICAL WAVES... A tropical wave is in the central Atlantic with axis extending from 08N to 18N along 42W at 15-20 kt. There is no significant convection associated with this wave. A tropical wave is E of the Lesser Antilles extending from 11N to 20N along 54W, moving west at 10 kt. Scattered moderate convection is from 11N to 18N between 46W and 53W. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic near 11N15W and extends to 08N35W to 13N56W. Numerous moderate to strong convection extends from 04N to 12N between 09W and 19W. Scattered moderate convection is noted from 04N to 10N between 20W and 47W. ...GULF OF AMERICA... Strong high pressure located over the NE United States supports fresh to strong NE to E winds over the NE Gulf waters, mainly N of 25N and E of 89W. Moderate seas to 6 ft are over this region where a pair of troughs are generating scattered to isolated showers. A weak pressure gradient is elsewhere across the basin, which is supporting light to gentle winds and slight seas. Locally fresh N to NW winds are offshore Veracruz just W of a surface trough in the Bay of Campeche along 93W. For the forecast, the pressure gradient between the strong high pressure system and low pressure forecast to move across the Florida Peninsula into the Gulf of America during the next day or two will lead to fresh to strong E winds and moderate to rough seas in the NE Gulf tonight, expanding into the north-central and NW Gulf Fri through Sat night. Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms can also be expected in these areas. Winds and seas will diminish Sun when the low pressure lifts N and out of the Gulf region. ...CARIBBEAN SEA... The eastern extension of the E Pacific monsoon trough is generating scattered heavy showers and isolated tstms over the SW Caribbean. Similar shower activity is over Cuba adjacent waters due to a frontal system N of the area. Otherwise, a weak pressure gradient prevails basin-wide, which is supporting light to gentle winds and slight seas, except for the south-central Caribbean where moderate easterly winds are ongoing. For the forecast, a weak pressure gradient will persist across the Caribbean basin through the forecast period, supporting gentle to moderate trade winds and slight to moderate seas. However, northerly swell generated by Post-Tropical Cyclone Imelda will propagate through the NE Caribbean passages, including the Atlantic waters just E of the Leeward Islands, building seas to near 10 ft Fri through early Sun. ...ATLANTIC OCEAN... Please read the Special Features about a gale warning and large swell associated with post-tropical cyclone Imelda. A cold front extends from the post-tropical low of Imelda near 32N55W to near 23N66W where it transitions to a stationary front that ends on a 1013 mb low E of Andros Island near 25N75W. Strong high pressure building a ridge over the northwestern Atlantic is forcing gale-force easterly winds north of the stationary front and low pressure between 74W and 77W tonight. Scattered heavy showers and isolated tstms are ahead of the cold front to about 49W. The Azores High and associated ridge dominate the central and eastern subtropical Atlantic waters, providing gentle to moderate E to SE winds E of 43W along with moderate seas to 7 ft. For the forecast west of 55W, winds are forecast to diminish below gale force tonight into early Fri. This pressure pattern will support fresh to strong winds across most of the area N of the front likely through Sun, as the high pressure shifts slowly eastward. Large northerly swell generated by Imelda will continue to affect the entire forecast area through early next week. Meanwhile, the low pressure along the frontal boundary is expected to shift westward across the northwestern Bahamas then northwestward across southern Florida during the next day or two, and will continue to be accompanied strong winds and scattered showers and thunderstorms. $$ Ramos