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AXNT20 KNHC 262246

TWDAT 



Tropical Weather Discussion

NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL

0015 UTC Sat Apr 26 2025



Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America

Gulf of America, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South

America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the

Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite

imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.



Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 

2200 UTC.



...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... 



The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic Ocean through the coast of

Senegal at 14N16.5W and continues southwestward to 01.5N28W. The 

ITCZ extends from 01.5N28W to the coast of Brazil near 01N50W. 

Scattered moderate to strong convection is noted from 01.5N to 

09N between 12W and 22W. Scattered moderate isolated strong

convection is noted from 00N to 05N between 42W and 52W. 



GULF OF AMERICA...

 

Stable conditions and fair weather prevail across the basin late

this afternoon. Surface high pressure dominates the Gulf waters,

with 1020 mb high centered over the NE Gulf extending eastward

into the Atlantic. This pattern is supporting gentle to moderate 

E to SE winds and moderate seas, except in the NE Gulf where light

to gentle and slight seas prevail. Moderate to fresh southeasterly

winds are noted offshore of central and southern Texas, while

fresh easterly winds are in the western Straits of Florida passing

north of the Yucatan Channel. A stable airmass maintains fairly 

tranquil weather conditions and very few significant clouds.



For the forecast, the surface ridge will continue to dominate the

Gulf waters this weekend and into early next week, supporting 

gentle to moderate E to SE winds and moderate seas. Winds will 

pulse to fresh to strong speeds each evening over the east and 

central Bay of Campeche through Tue night due to local effects 

related to the typical thermal trough moving westward off the 

Yucatan Peninsula. Winds of moderate to fresh speeds and moderate 

seas are forecast in the Straits of Florida through the period due

to persistent high pressure NE of the area. By Monday night, SE winds

may increase a bit in the central and northwest Gulf and persist 

into mid-week. 



CARIBBEAN SEA... 



A band of multilayer clouds, with embedded scattered showers and a

few thunderstorms, extends from northern Colombia and Venezuela

northeastward across the eastern Caribbean and the northern 

Leeward Islands into the central Atlantic. This cloudiness is 

associated with strong SW winds aloft occurring on the eastern 

side of a broad upper level trough across the Caribbean basin. 

Elsewhere, shallow moisture embedded in the trade wind flow is 

producing isolated to scattered passing showers across much of the

northeast Caribbean and adjacent islands. High pressure north of 

the Caribbean is somewhat restricted from building fully across

the basin, due to a persistent broad inverted trough across the

Atlantic along 65W-67W. However, the pressure gradient between 

the ridge and low pressure over Colombia supports fresh to locally

strong NE to E winds off northern Colombia. Seas in these waters 

are 4 to 6 ft. Moderate to fresh NE to E winds and moderate seas 

are occurring in the Windward Passage, in the lee of Cuba and 

across the Yucatan Channel. Elsewhere, south of the Atlantic 

inverted trough, moderate or weaker winds and slight to moderate 

seas prevail.



For the forecast, high pressure north of the basin will combine 

with the Colombian low to support winds pulsing to fresh at night

in the Windward Passage, south of Cuba, and offshore Colombia, 

with mainly moderate trade winds elsewhere. By Monday evening, 

winds will pulse to strong south of Cuba and in the Windward 

Passage, as high pressure north of the area strengthens and begins

to build southeastward.



ATLANTIC OCEAN...



A broad surface trough persists over the Atlantic waters, from 

Puerto Rico N-NE to near 30N63W. Scattered showers, with embedded

thunderstorms, are noted near and to the E of the northern end of

the trough axis, N of 25N between 54W and 60W. Recent scatterometer

data provide observations of moderate to fresh winds on the

periphery of either side of the trough. A stalled frontal 

boundary along 31N is supporting fresh NE to E winds roughly N of 

29N between 55W and 66W. The pressure gradient between high 

pressure ridging to the east of northern Florida and lower 

pressure over the SW Caribbean is supporting moderate to fresh NE 

to E trades over the Bahamas and through the Straits of Florida. 

The remainder of the Atlantic forecast area is under the influence

of a 1027 mb high pressure located NE of the Azores. The pressure

gradient between this system and lower pressures in NW Africa is 

resulting in fresh to strong NE winds N of 15N and E of 25W. Seas 

are 6 to 9 ft within these winds. Elsewhere, moderate or weaker 

winds and moderate seas prevail.



For the forecast west of 55W, a stationary front along 31N east 

of 64W will move eastward over the next couple days. Elsewhere, a

weak surface trough along 65W extending from Puerto Rico to 28N 

will persist for the next few days while gradually weakening. A 

cold front will move S of 31N Sun night, reach from near 31N61W to

26N72W to Daytona Beach Florida Mon evening, then move to near 

31N55W to the central Bahamas Tue evening before weakening. 

Moderate to fresh NNE to NE winds will follow in behind the front.



$$

Stripling