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AXPQ20 PGUM 270034

TWDPQ 



Tropical Weather Discussion

National Weather Service Tiyan GU

1034 AM ChST Sun Apr 27 2025



Tropical Weather Discussion for the Western North Pacific between

the Equator and 25N from 130E to 180. The following information is

based on recent satellite imagery/data, weather observations, radar,

and meteorological analysis.



...SPECIAL FEATURES...



None.



...OTHER WEATHER SYSTEMS...



NEAR EQUATORIAL TROUGH...

A Near Equatorial Trough (NET) enters the region near 5N130E, 

extending east-southeast across southern portions of the Republic of 

Palau and Yap State, to end near EQ150E in southeast Yap State. 

Moderate to occasionally deep convection is associated with this 

feature, producing numerous showers and some thunderstorms across a 

large sector of western Micronesia, as well as along the leading edge

of the monsoon-like surges buckling against the general trade- wind 

flow. This region is becoming more favorable for cyclogenesis; a 

meandering tropical disturbance near Sonsorol is expected to continue

to drift further toward the Philippines, inducing a consistent 

monsoon-like surge and assisting in doldrum formation upstream. The 

weak flow near the Equator is also indicated by the stable 

northwesterlies making their way across the northern shores of Papua 

New Guinea, which indicates a seasonal shift to a likely tropical 

disturbance developing between 140E and 150E between 8N and the 

Equator in the next 3 to 5 days. High uncertainty remains regarding 

potential development of a significant tropical cyclone, so various 

agencies will continue to monitor this area for any changes over at 

least the next several days.



TRADE-WIND CONVERGENCE...

A trade-wind convergence zone extends across much of central and east

Micronesia, spanning from 140E to 160E between 9N and the Equator. 

This is the result of trade winds clashing with the monsoon-like flow

induced by the aforementioned NET in western Micronesia, producing 

numerous to widespread showers across much of Yap State, Chuuk State,

Pohnpei State, and southwest of Kosrae. This region is expected to 

enhance potential for cyclogenesis in eastern Yap State, providing 

the necessary vorticity potentials and moisture flux to the NET 

downstream, shifting northward as the convergence zone moves up along

the northern NET axis over much of the week.



TRADE-WIND TROUGHS...

Multiple surface trade-wind troughs are embedded within the

aforementioned trade-wind convergence. One is located over and near 

Majuro, producing scattered showers and some thunderstorms. Other 

troughs are producing scattered showers well east of the Marshalls 

near the Date Line. These features are expected to remain transient 

of nature for the next several days, as they continue moving along 

with the trades.



...OTHER SYSTEMS...



UPPER-LEVEL LOW... 

An upper-level low is centered near 23N158E east-southeast of

Minamitorishima. Little to no convection is associated with this

system, producing some shearing with passing minor surface troughs 

below. This feature is expected to meander in the general vicinity 

while the trough axis sharpens over the next several days, followed 

by an embedded low developing northeast of Wake Island by midweek.



$$



Montvila