####018004612####
AXNT20 KNHC 271017

TWDAT 



Tropical Weather Discussion

NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL

1215 UTC Sun Apr 27 2025



Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America

Gulf of America, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South

America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the

Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite

imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.



Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 

1000 UTC.



...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... 



The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic Ocean through the coast of

Senegal at 15N18W to 04N21W. The ITCZ continues from 04N21W to 

the coast of Brazil near 01N50W. Scattered moderate to isolated 

strong convection is evident south of 06N and W of 18W. 



GULF OF AMERICA...

 

A weak high pressure dominates the Gulf waters, supporting 

moderate to fresh NE-E winds and moderate seas south of 22N and 

east of 94W. Moderate E-SE winds and moderate seas prevail in the

rest of the basin, except for light to gentle winds and slight 

seas in the NE Gulf. A stable airmass maintains fairly tranquil 

weather conditions.



For the forecast, the surface ridge will continue to dominate the

Gulf waters through early this week supporting gentle to moderate

E to SE winds and moderate seas. Winds will pulse to fresh to 

strong speeds each evening over the east and central Bay of 

Campeche through Tue night due to local effects related to a 

thermal trough coming off the Yucatan Peninsula. Fresh winds and 

moderate seas are forecast in the Straits of Florida through the 

forecast period due to persistent high pressure NE of the area. By

Monday night, SE winds may increase in the central and northwest 

Gulf and persist through mid-week.



CARIBBEAN SEA... 



A band of multilayer clouds, with embedded scattered showers and 

thunderstorms, extends from northern Venezuela northeastward 

across the eastern Caribbean including Puerto Rico and the Leeward

Islands, then into the central Atlantic. This cloudiness is 

associated with strong SW winds aloft occurring on the eastern 

side of a broad upper level trough across the Caribbean basin. 

Elsewhere, shallow moisture embedded in the trade wind flow is 

producing isolated to scattered passing showers across much of the

northeast Caribbean and adjacent islands. 



High pressure centered north of the area support moderate to fresh

easterly trade winds in the lee of Cuba, along with seas of 2-4

ft. Moderate easterly breezes and moderate seas are noted in the 

south-central and eastern Caribbean and Windward Passage. 

Elsewhere, light to gentle winds and slight to moderate seas are 

prevalent.



For the forecast, high pressure north of the basin combined with the

Colombian low will support pulsing fresh winds at night in the

Windward Passage, south of Cuba, and offshore Colombia, with

moderate trade winds elsewhere. By Monday evening, winds will

pulse to strong south of Cuba and in the Windward Passage, as

high pressure north of the area strengthens. 



ATLANTIC OCEAN...



A broad surface trough persists over the Atlantic waters, from 

eastern Hispaniola to near 31N65W. A recent scatterometer 

satellite pass captured fresh to strong easterly winds north of 

25N and between 53W and 67W. Seas in these waters are 5-8 ft. 

Moderate to fresh easterly winds and slight to moderate seas are 

evident south of 25N and west of 70W. 



A stationary front extends along 31N east of 55W. Fresh east winds

are associated with this feature. The remainder of the basin is 

dominated by broad surface riding, supporting moderate to fresh 

easterly breezes and moderate seas between 25W and 65W. A tighter 

pressure gradient between the ridge off Portugal and lower 

pressures in western Africa sustain fresh to strong N-NE winds and

seas of 6-9 ft east of 25W and north of 19N. Elsewhere, light to 

gentle winds and slight to moderate seas prevail.



For the forecast west of 55W, the central Atlantic front will 

drift eastward over the next couple days. Elsewhere, a weak 

surface trough along 68W extending from eastern Hispaniola to 31N 

will persist for the next few days. A cold front will move S of 

31N tonight, reach from near 31N61W to 26N72W to Daytona Beach 

Florida Mon evening, then move to near 31N55W to the central 

Bahamas Tue evening before weakening. Moderate to fresh NNE to NE 

winds will follow the front.



$$

ERA