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AXNT20 KNHC 290538

TWDAT 



Tropical Weather Discussion

NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL

0615 UTC Tue Apr 29 2025



Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America

Gulf of America, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South

America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the

Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite

imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.



Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 

0530 UTC.



...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... 



The monsoon trough enters the east Atlantic near 14N17W to 06N20W.

The ITCZ continues from that point to 00N48W. Scattered moderate 

isolated strong convection is evident south of 06N between 15W 

and 47W.



GULF OF AMERICA...

 

Surface ridging prevails across the basin, anchored by a 1021 mb

high pressure, centered near 29N87W. To the east, a weakening 

cold front is analyzed across northern Florida. No shower or 

thunderstorm activity is evident. Strong winds are pulsing over

the eastern Bay of Campeche in the proximity of the diurnal 

thermal trough. Light breezes and nearly calm seas are noted in 

the far northeast Gulf, with gentle to moderate E to SE winds and 

2 to 4 ft seas elsewhere, except to 5 ft across the central Texas 

coastal waters and the Straits of Florida.



For the forecast, the high pressure will continue to dominate the

basin through at least Tue supporting gentle to moderate east to 

southeast winds and moderate seas across the northeastern and 

north-central Gulf. Winds will pulse to fresh to strong speeds 

each evening over the eastern and central Bay of Campeche through 

the forecast period due to local effects related to a thermal 

trough coming off the Yucatan Peninsula. Fresh winds and moderate 

seas are forecast in the Straits of Florida at night through Wed 

night. Southeast winds and seas will increase over the western and

central Gulf for Tue through Wed night. 



CARIBBEAN SEA... 



A broad deep layer trough is over the western Atlantic extending

S-SW to the north-central Caribbean. Divergent southwesterly flow

aloft ahead of the trough continues to support scattered showers 

and thunderstorms over the southwest Caribbean coastal waters 

from northwest Colombia to northern Costa Rica. Farther east, 

shallow moisture embedded in the trade wind flow is producing 

scattered passing showers across much of the northeastern 

Caribbean and adjacent islands east of 70W. Drier conditions are 

noted over the northwestern Caribbean, under the influence of the 

northern flow aloft west of the upper trough. At the surface, the 

wind flow pattern is being driven by relatively high pressure that

is present north of the area along the middle Atlantic coast, and

the usual low pressure found off Colombia. This pattern is 

supporting gentle to moderate easterly flow across the basin along

with seas of 2 to 4 ft, except for fresh northeast winds off 

Colombia, and moderate to fresh northeast to east winds in the lee

of Cuba. Seas are 6 to 8 ft off of Colombia.



For the forecast, the high pressure north of the basin combined with

the Colombian low will support pulsing fresh to strong winds at 

night in the Windward Passage and south of Cuba, tonight through 

at least Thu night, with mainly moderate trades elsewhere.



ATLANTIC OCEAN...



A cold front reaches from 31N60W to 28N80W. To the southeast of 

this, a trough persists from 27N61W to 19N65W. Scattered showers 

and thunderstorms are active in the vicinity of the front and

trough between 48W-59W. Fresh NE to E winds and 5 to 8 ft seas 

are noted north of the front. Gentle to moderate NE winds and 3 to

5 ft seas are noted elsewhere to the west of the surface trough. 

Gentle to moderate SE to S winds and seas of 5 to 6 ft prevail 

between the trough and 50W. East of 45W, the pattern is dominated

by 1033 mb high pressure centered west of the Azores Islands, 

supporting fresh trade winds and 6 to 8 ft seas.



For the forecast west of 55W, the front will reach from near 

31N57W to 25N70W to the NW Bahamas early Tue. This front is 

forecast to stall on Wed from near 31N53W to the Turks and Caicos 

Islands. Fresh northeast winds and moderate to rough seas will 

follow the front. Building high pressure in the wake of the front 

will dominate the forecast waters west of 65W for remainder of the

week. 



$$

ERA