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AXPZ20 KNHC 291522

TWDEP 



Tropical Weather Discussion

NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL

1605 UTC Tue Apr 29 2025



Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from

03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and

from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following

information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations,

radar, and meteorological analysis.



Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through

1430 UTC.



...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...



The monsoon trough extends from 10N74.5W to 09N87W to 06.5N97W to

07.5N121W to 05N129W. The ITCZ continues from 05N129W to

03.5N134W to beyond 03.5N140W. Scattered moderate to strong 

convection is noted from 01.5N to 10N east of 86W, from 04N to

08N between 87W and 111W, and from 05N to 11N between 110W and 

129W.



...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...



Overnight satellite scatterometer data showed moderate to fresh

N-NW winds continuing across the Baja California waters N of 

Cabo San Lazaro, then moderate winds extending southward to the 

Revillagigedo Islands. Seas across the waters from Cabo San

Lazaro northward are 6 to 9 ft in merging NW and S swell, and 5

to 7 ft southward. Light to gentle winds prevail elsewhere 

across the open waters off Mexico to the Gulf of Tehuantepec.

Seas there are 5 to 7 ft in fading S to SW swell, except to 8 ft

offshore of Tehuantepec. Gentle to moderate winds are noted in 

the Gulf of California where seas are 3 ft or less, except to 5 

ft near the entrance of the Gulf. Scattered showers and a few

thunderstorms are noted across the Tehuantepec area from offshore

of Puerto Angel to the waters of southeastern Chiapas.



For the forecast, a broad ridge of high pressure extending

southeastward across the Baja waters will weaken slightly across

the region through the remainder of the week. Moderate to fresh 

NW winds across the Baja waters will diminish slightly through 

the remainder of the week. Light winds are expected across the 

Gulf of Tehuantepec though Fri.



...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, 

AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...



Moderate to fresh easterly gap wind flow continues across the 

Papagayo region to northern Nicaragua this morning, with fresh

winds offshore of the Gulf of Papagayo and extending westward to

near 88W. Seas there are 5 to 7 ft in fading SW swell. Elsewhere,

light to gentle winds prevail with seas in the 5-6 ft range in 

subsiding S to SW swell. Scattered showers and thunderstorms

remain active across the waters north of 01N and east of 92W, and

into the coasts of Costa Rica and Panama.



For the forecast, high pressure will remain N of the area to

maintain the current pattern of moderate to fresh winds pulsing

at night across the Papagayo region through early Fri, before

winds diminish into the upcoming weekend. Moderate northerly 

winds across the Gulf of Panama will diminish slightly through 

Thu, then become light and variable into the upcoming weekend. 



...REMAINDER OF THE AREA....



A broad ridge dominates the regional Pacific waters N of 10N 

and W of 110W, centered on a 1032 mb high near 37N136W. The 

pressure gradient between this ridge and lower pressure in the 

vicinity of the ITCZ is supporting fresh NE trade winds N of the

ITCZ to 24N and W of 122W. Seas over these waters are in the 7-9

ft range in merging S and NE swell. Moderate to fresh 

anticyclonic winds dominate the remainder of the waters N of the 

ITCZ and W of 110W, with seas of 6 to 8 ft in merging N and S

swell. S of the ITCZ/monsoon trough, light to gentle winds and 

seas of 6-7 ft in subsiding S-SW swell prevail. Scattered showers

and thunderstorms remain active near the ITCZ/monsoon trough from

05N to 11N between 110W and 129W.



For the forecast, the broad high pressure ridge currently 

dominating the region W of 110W will remain in place through 

early Wed, then begin to weaken and shift SE, ahead of an 

approaching frontal system. Little change in winds and wave 

heights are expected N of the ITCZ through early Wed, before a 

decreasing trend ensues from the middle to end of the week. 



$$

Stripling