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AXNT20 KNHC 300514

TWDAT 



Tropical Weather Discussion

NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL

0615 UTC Wed Apr 30 2025



Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America

Gulf of America, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South

America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the

Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite

imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.



Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 

0500 UTC.



...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... 



The monsoon trough enters the eastern Atlantic near 16N17W, and 

continues southwestward to 03N32W. The ITCZ then continues from 

03N32W to 03S40W. Scattered moderate convection is noted within

200 nm on either side of the boundaries. 





GULF OF AMERICA...

 

A 1027 mb high pressure extends a ridge from offshore the Mid- 

Atlantic states southwestward into the northern Gulf. Mostly dry 

and stable conditions remain in place over the basin. Moderate to

fresh east to southeast winds prevail across most of the Gulf. The

exception is over the eastern Bay of Campeche, where the diurnal

thermal trough is exiting the Yucatan Peninsula enhancing strong winds

in the area. Seas are in the range of 3 to 5 ft, except less than

3 ft NE portions, and up to 6 ft in the Florida Current north of 

Cuba.

 

For the forecast, the pressure gradient in the basin will 

maintain moderate to fresh east to southeast winds over the basin 

for the next few days. E winds will pulse to strong north of the 

Yucatan peninsula and over the Bay of Campeche nightly through Thu

night in association with a diurnal trough. Additionally, E winds

will pulse to strong over the Florida Straits tonight and 

tomorrow night. Winds will diminish across the Gulf Fri into the 

weekend. Looking ahead, a weak cold front may reach the NE Gulf 

Sat night.



CARIBBEAN SEA... 



Scattered moderate convection is occurring in the far SW Caribbean,

S of 11.5N between the coasts of Colombia and southern Nicaragua,

and in the vicinity of the East Pacific monsoon trough. Scattered

passing showers dot the waters of the central and eastern 

Caribbean to the north of 14N. Moderate to fresh E to NE winds are

occurring across much of the central, SW and NW Caribbean, where 

seas are 4 to 6 ft. Fresh to strong NE winds are found offshore of

NW Colombia to eastern Panama where seas are 5 to 7 ft. Winds 

across the E Caribbean are gentle to moderate with seas around 3 

ft.



For the forecast, the Bermuda High north of the basin combined 

with the Colombian Low will support pulsing fresh to strong trades

at night over the Windward Passage and south of Cuba through Thu 

night. Elsewhere, tranquil conditions should prevail over the 

forecast waters through the weekend. 



ATLANTIC OCEAN...



A stationary front is analyzed from 31N54W to 24N76W. Scattered 

showers are along the northern portion of the front. A 1027 mb 

high behind the front is offshore of Cape Hatteras, promoting 

fresh N to NE winds behind the front and into the Bahamas and 

well offshore of NE Florida. Seas are 6 to 8 ft in N swell except 

4 to 5 ft offshore of NE Florida. A persistent trough resides east

of the front, from 27N56W to 20N66W. Light to gentle winds are 

generally on either side of the trough. Scattered showers are to 

the east of the front/trough, N of 20N and between 48W and 56W. 

This activity is supported by convergent surface winds occurring 

ahead of a broad upper-level trough across the western Atlantic. 

Farther east, a cold front is moving across NW Africa and extends

from 31N10W to 24N15W. Scattered showers and thunderstorms are 

occurring ahead of the front. A 1029 mb high is centered over the

eastern Atlantic between the two frontal systems, near 35N34W. 

The pressure gradient between the high and the eastern front is 

producing an area of fresh to strong N to NE winds from 19N to 

26N E of 40W, where seas are 8 to 10 ft in N swell. Another area 

of fresh to strong NE winds prevails N of 30N and E of 26W, with 

seas of 10 to 12 ft. Across the Atlantic waters S of 19N, the 

associated ridge is supporting moderate to fresh NE to E winds 

between 25W and 55W, where seas are 6 to 8 ft in NE swell. 



For the forecast west of 55W, the front will gradually weaken 

through Thu and dissipate afterward. High pressure behind the 

front will shift eastward through Fri. Fresh northeast to east 

winds currently behind the front should continue through Thu, then

to the south of 28N west of 55W through late Thu before 

diminishing to gentle to moderate speeds for the rest of the 

forecast period. Remnants of the front that should develop into a 

trough northeast of the Leeward Islands will force fresh northeast

winds north of 27N and east of 65W from Fri morning into the 

weekend. Looking ahead, a weak cold front may emerge off the U.S. 

southeastern coast late Sat night into Sun.



$$

ERA