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AXNT20 KNHC 301039

TWDAT 



Tropical Weather Discussion

NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL

1215 UTC Wed Apr 30 2025



Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America

Gulf of America, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South

America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the

Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite

imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.



Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through

1030 UTC.



...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... 



The monsoon trough axis enters the eastern Atlantic through the 

southern Mauritania coast near 17N16W and continues southwestward 

to 07N25W, where it transitions to the ITCZ to 04N33W to 02S40W 

and to inland the coast of Brazil at 02S45W. Scattered moderate

to strong convection is seen to the southeast of the trough

between the coast of Africa and 15W from 03N to 08N. Scattered

moderate convection is within 60 nm southeast of the ITCZ between

24W and 28W.



GULF OF AMERICA...

 

High pressure of 1023 mb is centered offshore the southeastern 

U.S. A ridge extends west-southwestward from the high pressure to

along the northern Gulf coast east of Louisiana. Mostly dry and 

stable conditions continue over the eastern and central Gulf zones

while increasing moisture leading to more cloud is noted over the

western Gulf from 24N to 29N west of 93W in advance of a mid to 

upper-level disturbance that is advancing eastward over the 

Southern Plains. The pressure gradient between the lower 

pressures in Texas and the Southern Plains and the high pressure 

is allowing for moderate to fresh east to southeast winds to 

exist across most of the Gulf. The exception is over the eastern 

Bay of Campeche, where the diurnal thermal trough is exiting the 

Yucatan Peninsula enhancing strong winds in the area. Seas are 

generally in the range of 4 to 6 ft, except for slightly higher 

seas of 5 to 7 ft over the west-central section, slightly lower 

seas of 3 to 5 ft over the north-central section and 3 ft or less 

seas over the NE section.

 

For the forecast, the present pressure gradient in the basin will

maintain moderate to fresh east to southeast winds over the basin

for the next few days. East winds will pulse to strong speeds 

north of the Yucatan peninsula and over the Bay of Campeche 

tonight and Thu night in association with a diurnal trough. Fresh 

east winds over the Straits of Florida will diminish to moderate 

speeds Thu night. Winds elsewhere will begin to diminish Fri and 

into the weekend. Looking ahead, a weak cold front may reach the 

NE Gulf Sat night. 



CARIBBEAN SEA... 



Satellite imagery shows increasing deep-layer moisture over 

most of the central and eastern caribbean zones. Along with 

moisture, atmospheric instability has also increased in these 

areas, where a northeast to southwest oriented jet stream branch 

is evident. Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms are south

of 13N between 72W and 82W. Scattered showers and thunderstorms 

are over northwest Colombia and western Venezuela. Overnight ASCAT

satellite data passes indicate moderate to fresh trades over the

majority of the western and central section of the basin. Gentle 

to moderate trades are over the eastern Caribbean. Seas are in 

the range of 4 to 6 ft, except for slightly lower seas of 3 to 5 

ft over the waters from 15N to 18N between 80W and 85W and south 

of 15N between 68W and 72W. Winds across the eastern Caribbean are 

of gentle to moderate speeds with seas around 3 ft.



For the forecast, the high pressure north of the basin combined 

with the Colombian Low will support pulsing fresh to strong trades

at night over the Windward Passage and south of Cuba through Thu 

night. Elsewhere, rather quiet conditions are expected over the 

forecast waters through the weekend. 



ATLANTIC OCEAN...



A stationary front is analyzed from 31N55W to 23N65W while a 

surface trough is just ahead of it from northeast of Puerto Rico

to near 23N63W. Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms are 

east of the front north of 25N between 51W and 55W. High pressure 

of 1023 mb is situated off the U.S. southeastern coast and 

another 1023 mb high is just northwest of Bermuda. Mostly fresh 

northeast to east winds are west of the front and trough along 

with seas of 6 to 8 ft northeast of the Bahama and seas of

5 to 6 ft elsewhere. Light to gentle winds are generally on 

either side of the trough. Broad high pressure is east of the 

front and trough over the eastern Atlantic north of about 18N.

The pressure gradient between the high pressure and relatively

lower pressures in NW Africa is resulting in fresh to strong

north to northeast winds from 16N to 20N and east of 31W. Seas

with these winds are 8 to 10 ft in north swell. Higher seas of

10 to 12 ft are north of 20N between 16W and 25W. The gradient

related to the high pressure is sustaining fresh trades from

14N to 17N between 19W and 45W along with seas of 6 to 8 ft

in northeast swell. 



For the forecast west of 55W, the front will begin to weaken

Thu and dissipate afterward. High pressure west of the front and 

trough will remain about stationary through Thu, then begin to 

shift eastward into the weekend. Fresh northeast to east winds 

west of the front and trough will continue through Thu, then be 

located to the south of 28N west of 55W Thu night through Fri 

before diminishing to gentle to moderate speeds for the rest of 

the forecast period. Remnants of the front that should develop 

into a trough northeast of the Leeward Islands will induce fresh 

northeast winds north of 27N and east of 65W from Fri morning into

the weekend. Looking ahead, a weak cold front may emerge off the 

U.S. southeastern coast late Sat night into Sun. 



$$

Aguirre