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AXPZ20 KNHC 301519

TWDEP 



Tropical Weather Discussion

NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL

1605 UTC Wed Apr 30 2025



Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from

03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and

from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following

information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations,

radar, and meteorological analysis.



Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through

1440 UTC.



...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...



The monsoon trough extends from 10N76W to 10N83W to 07N98W to 

09N113W to 06.5N120W. The ITCZ continues from 06.5N120W to

06.5N129W to beyond 04.5N140W. Scattered to locally numerous 

moderate to strong convection is noted from 01N to 09N east of

85W. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection is noted from

03.5N to 08.5N between 85W and 112W, and from 05.5N to 09.5N 

between 112W and 140W.



...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...



Overnight satellite scatterometer data showed moderate to locally

fresh N-NW winds across the waters west of the Baja California 

peninsula, extending southward to the Revillagigedo Islands. Seas

there are 6 to 7 ft in NW swell. Moderate westerly winds were 

indicated near the coast from near Cabo Corrientes to Puerto 

Angel, where seas are 5 to 6 ft. Light to gentle winds prevail 

elsewhere, including in the Gulf of California. Seas across these

offshore waters are 5 to 6 ft and 3 ft or less inside the Gulf 

of California and 4 to 5 ft in SW swell across the entrance.



For the forecast, a broad ridge extending southeastward across 

the Baja waters will weaken slightly across the region through 

the remainder of the week, leading to a gradual decrease in winds

and seas across the Baja waters. W to SW winds are expected 

across the Gulf of Tehuantepec into the upcoming weekend. 

Moderate to fresh W to SW gap winds will develop across the 

northern Gulf of California tonight and Thu nights. A cold front 

will move into the Baja Norte waters Sat night and reach the 

central Baja waters Sun, accompanied by a significant increase in

winds and seas. 



...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, 

AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...



Overnight satellite scatterometer data showed moderate to fresh 

easterly gap winds across the Papagayo region extending into

central Nicaragua, with fresh to locally strong winds downwind of

the Gulf of Papagayo. Moderate northerly winds were shown across  

the Gulf of Panama. Moderate SW winds were noted between the

Galapagos Islands and Ecuador. Gentle winds are elsewhere. Seas 

are in the 4-7 ft range in fading S to SW swell. Scattered to

locally numerous thunderstorms are active across the near ans

offshore waters of Colombia northward into the Gulf of Panama,

and westward to 85W and the SE coast of Costa Rica.



For the forecast, moderate to fresh winds will pulse at night 

across the Papagayo region through early Fri, before winds 

diminish through the upcoming weekend. Moderate northerly winds 

across the Gulf of Panama will diminish slightly through Thu, 

then become light and variable into the weekend. Gentle to moderate

S to SW winds are expected to develop across the waters between 

the Galapagos Islands, Ecuador and Colombia tonight and persist 

for throughout the week.



...REMAINDER OF THE AREA....



A broad ridge dominates the regional Pacific waters N of 10N 

and W of 110W. The pressure gradient between this ridge and 

lower pressure in the vicinity of the ITCZ is supporting fresh to

locally strong NE trade winds N of the ITCZ to 20N and W of 

120W. Seas over these waters are in the 7-9 ft range, and to 10

ft W of 137W. Moderate anticyclonic winds dominate the remaining

waters N of the ITCZ and W of 110W, with seas of 6 to 8 ft in N 

to NE swell. S of the ITCZ/monsoon trough, light to gentle winds 

and seas of 5-6 ft prevail.



For the forecast, the broad high pressure ridge currently 

dominating the region W of 110W will begin to weaken and shift 

SE ahead of an approaching frontal system. The weakening ridge

will result in a decreasing trend in winds and wave heights N of

the ITCZ through end of the week. A cold front will enter the NW

waters Fri evening, and move E-SE and reach from 30N121W to 

26N140W by Sat evening. Fresh to locally strong N to NE winds and

building seas of 8 to 10 ft are expected behind the front.



$$

Stripling