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AXPZ20 KNHC 011522

TWDEP 



Tropical Weather Discussion

NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL

1605 UTC Thu May 1 2025



Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from

03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and

from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following

information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations,

radar, and meteorological analysis.



Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through

1430 UTC.



...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...



The monsoon trough extends from 11N75W to 06.5N81.5W to 08.5N87W

to 07.5N106W. The ITCZ continues from 07.5N106W to beyond 

06N140W. Scattered moderate to strong convection is noted from 

02.5N to 10N east of 91W, and from 05.5N to 11.5N between 119W 

and 140W. Scattered moderate convection is noted from 03.5N to

12.5N between 91W and 114W.



...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...



Gentle to locally moderate winds prevail over the entire

discussion area waters, from Baja California Norte to the Gulf of

Tehuantepec. Light to gentle winds prevail across the Gulf of 

California. Seas are 5-6 ft in NW swell over the open waters off

Mexico. Over the Gulf of California, seas are in the 1-3 ft 

range, except 4 to 5 ft at the entrance to the Gulf. 



For the forecast, high pressure well NW of the area will slowly 

weaken and shift southeastward through the remainder of the week,

leading to a gradual decrease in winds and seas across the Baja 

waters. S to SW winds are expected across the Gulf of Tehuantepec

into the upcoming weekend. Moderate to fresh W to SW gap winds 

will pulse across the northern Gulf of California tonight. A cold

front will move into the Baja Norte waters Sat night and reach 

the central Baja waters Sun, accompanied by a significant 

increase in winds and seas across the Baja offshore waters, and 

strong westerly gap winds across the Gulf of California through 

Mon morning. 



...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, 

AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...



Moderate NE to E gap winds prevail across the Papagayo region. 

Gentle to locally moderate winds SW to W winds prevail elsewhere

to the south. Seas are in the 4-7 ft range in S to SW swell.

Scattered showers and thunderstorms prevail across the waters from 

02.5N to 10N east of 91W.



For the forecast, moderate to fresh winds will pulse tonight 

across the Papagayo before winds diminish during the upcoming 

weekend. Gentle northerly winds across the Gulf of Panama will 

become light and variable into the weekend. Gentle to moderate S

to SW winds will continue across the waters between the 

Galapagos Islands, Ecuador and Colombia into Sat then will become

SW to W Sun through Mon. 



...REMAINDER OF THE AREA....



A broad ridge dominates the regional Pacific waters N of 10N 

and W of 110W, centered on a 1024 mb high near 33N134W. The 

pressure gradient between this ridge and lower pressure in the 

vicinity of the ITCZ is supporting moderate to fresh NE trade 

winds N of the ITCZ to 20N and W of 113W. Seas over these waters

are in the 6-9 ft range. Gentle anticyclonic winds dominate the 

remaining waters N of the ITCZ and W of 110W, with seas in the 5 

to 7 ft range. S of the ITCZ/monsoon trough, light to gentle 

winds and seas of 5-7 ft prevail. 



For the forecast, high pressure north of the area will begin to

slowly weaken and shift southeastward through Fri, ahead of an 

approaching frontal system. The weakening ridge will result in a 

decreasing trend in winds and seas N of the ITCZ through end of 

the week. A cold front will enter the NW waters Fri evening. The

front will reach from Southern California to 30N122W to 26N140W 

Sat evening, and from central Baja California to 23N140W by Sun 

evening. Strong high pressure building behind the front will 

promote fresh to locally strong N to NE winds and building seas 

of 8 to 12 ft behind the front through the weekend, and strong SW

to W gap winds across the Gulf of California.



$$

Stripling