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AXPZ20 KNHC 012049

TWDEP 



Tropical Weather Discussion

NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL

2205 UTC Thu May 1 2025



Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from

03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and

from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following

information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations,

radar, and meteorological analysis.



Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through

1900 UTC.



...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...



The monsoon trough extends from 11N76W to 09.5N87W to 08.5N102W.

The ITCZ continues from 08.5N102W to 09.5N120W to beyond 

06N140W. Scattered moderate to strong convection is noted from 

03N to 09.5N east of 89W, and from 05N to 12N between 120W and 

140W. Scattered moderate convection is noted from 03N to 09N 

between 89W and 111W.



...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...



Midday satellite scatterometer data showed moderate N-NW winds

continuing across the Baja California waters, becoming more

westerly and continuing parallel along the coast from Cabo

Corrientes to the Gulf of Tehuantepec. Locally fresh winds were

noted along the coast of Cabo San Lucas and Cabo Corrientes. Seas  

are 4 to 6 ft across these waters in a mix of S to SW and NW

swell. Light to gentle winds were noted across the southern Gulf

of California, and gentle to moderate winds southerly winds

across northern portions. Seas in the Gulf are 1 to 3 ft, except

4 to 5 ft in S swell at the entrance to the Gulf. 



For the forecast, high pressure NW of the area will slowly 

weaken and shift southeastward through Fri night before collapsing.

Moderate winds across the Baja waters this afternoon will 

increase gradually to fresh tonight through Sat morning, ahead of

an approaching cold front. Moderate to fresh W to SW gap winds 

will pulse across the northern Gulf of California tonight. The 

cold front will move into the Baja Norte waters Sat evening and 

reach the central Baja waters Sun, accompanied by a significant 

increase in winds and seas across the Baja offshore waters, and 

strong to near gale-force westerly gap winds across the Gulf of 

California through Mon morning. S to SW winds are expected across

the Gulf of Tehuantepec through the upcoming weekend. 



...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, 

AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...



Midday satellite scatterometer data showed moderate NE to E gap 

winds prevail across the Papagayo region. Moderate S to SW winds

were noted south of the monsoon trough, along about 08N. Light 

to gentle winds were noted elsewhere. Seas across the area are 

in the 4-7 ft range in S to SW swell. Scattered showers and 

thunderstorms prevail across the waters from 03N to 09.5N east of

89W and into the coasts of NW Colombia, Panama, and Costa Rica.



For the forecast, moderate winds will continue tonight across 

the Papagayo region before winds diminish during the upcoming 

weekend. Gentle northerly winds across the Gulf of Panama will 

become light and variable into the weekend. Gentle to moderate S 

to SW winds will continue across the waters between the Galapagos

Islands, Ecuador and Colombia into Sat then will become SW to W 

Sun through Mon. 



...REMAINDER OF THE AREA....



A broad ridge dominates the regional Pacific waters N of 10N 

and W of 106W, centered on a 1024 mb high near 31N136W. The 

pressure gradient between this ridge and lower pressure in the 

vicinity of the ITCZ is supporting moderate to fresh NE trade 

winds N of the ITCZ to 22N and W of 110W. Seas over these waters

are in the 6-9 ft range. Gentle anticyclonic winds dominate the 

remaining waters N of the ITCZ and W of 110W, with seas in the 4 

to 6 ft range. S of the ITCZ/monsoon trough, light to gentle 

winds and seas of 5-7 ft prevail. 



For the forecast, the high pressure north of the area will

continue to weaken and shift southeastward through Fri night

before collapsing, ahead of an approaching frontal system. The 

weakening ridge will maintain the current marine conditions 

N of the ITCZ through Fri. A cold front will enter the NW waters

Fri evening. The front will reach from Southern California to 

30N122W to 26N140W Sat evening, and from central Baja California 

to 23N140W by Sun evening. Strong high pressure building behind 

the front will promote fresh to locally strong N to NE winds and 

building seas of 8 to 12 ft behind the front through the weekend,

with strongest winds and highest seas occurring E of 130W.



$$

Stripling