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AXNT20 KNHC 012252

TWDAT 



Tropical Weather Discussion

NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL

0015 UTC Thu May 1 2025



Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America

Gulf of America, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South

America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the

Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite

imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.



Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 

2230 UTC.



...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... 



The monsoon trough axis enters the Atlantic through the coast of 

Senegal near 14N17W and continues southwestward to 04.5N22W. The 

ITCZ extends from 04.5N22W to the coast of Brazil at 00N50W.

Scattered moderate convection is noted from 01.5N to 07.5N 

between 10W and 24W.



GULF OF AMERICA...



Moderate to fresh SE winds and 4 to 7 ft seas are noted across 

most of the Gulf this afternoon, between high pressure over the 

western Atlantic and low pressure over central Mexico. The 

exception is gentle to moderate SE breezes and 3 to 4 ft seas 

across the northeast Gulf. A surface trough is across the central

Gulf along 87W-88W, with small clusters of showers on either side

between 86W and 90W. 



For the forecast, high pressure centered across the western

Atlantic extends a ridge westward along about 30N to SE Texas, 

and will be the main feature controlling the weather pattern 

across the Gulf through late Fri. The associated pressure gradient

will maintain moderate to fresh east to southeast winds over the 

basin through Sat morning. East winds will pulse to strong speeds 

north of the Yucatan peninsula and over the Bay of Campeche 

nightly through Fri in association with a diurnal trough. Moderate

to fresh E winds and moderate seas are expected across the 

Straits of Florida through Fri night. Elsewhere, winds will 

diminish Fri into Sat for most of the zones. Looking ahead, a weak

cold front will reach the NE Gulf Sat night before shifting east 

of the basin Sun. High pressure will then build southward across 

the Gulf leading to mostly fresh easterly winds over most of the 

forecast zones through early next week. 



CARIBBEAN SEA... 



Weak high pressure centered over the western Atlantic between 

Bermuda and northeast Florida is supporting fresh NE to E winds 

across the north-central Caribbean, offshore of Colombia, through

the Windward Passage, and in the lee of Cuba. Seas are 4 to 6 ft 

across these areas. Moderate E winds and 3 to 5 ft seas are noted 

elsewhere. A few showers and thunderstorms are active near the 

monsoon trough off the coast of Colombia and eastern Panama south

of 12N. Divergent flow aloft on the southeast side of an upper 

trough that extends from the western Atlantic to the western

Caribbean is supporting scattered showers and a few thunderstorms

across the north central and northeast Caribbean, N of 14N, and

across portions of Hispaniola and Puerto Rico.



For the forecast, the current pattern will continue to support 

fresh to strong northeast winds tonight through the Windward 

Passage and in the lee of Cuba. At the same time, fresh to strong 

northeast winds are expected south of the Dominican Republic, 

mainly near Cabo Beata. Fresh to strong northeast winds will 

materialize through the Windward Passage Fri night. Unsettled 

weather is expected to continue over most of the eastern Caribbean

into the weekend, as the upper level trough remains just north of

the area. Otherwise, rather quiet conditions are expected over 

the remainder of the basin into early next week.



ATLANTIC OCEAN...



Deep layered low pressure across the central Atlantic has formed a

1013 mb surface low near 26N56.5W this afternoon. A middle to

upper level trough extends W-SW from the deep layered low pressure

through the Bahamas and into the western Caribbean. This feature

is creating unstable atmospheric conditions to the south and east

of it, and supporting active weather. Scattered showers and thunderstorms

are occurring S of 21N between Hispaniola and 45W. Scattered to

numerous showers and thunderstorms are active from 20N northward 

to 30N between 42W and the low pressure at 56.5W. North of the 

low, stationary front continues from 26N61W to beyond 31N50W. A 

surface trough lingering across this area for days extends from 

the surface low to the northern Leeward Islands. Northwest of the 

area, a 1024 mb high is centered near 32N71W. The pressure 

gradient between the high and these features is producing moderate

to fresh NE to E winds to the west of the low and surface trough,

with strong NE winds north of the front between 55W and 60W. Seas

across this are 5 to 7 ft to the east of the Bahamas, with gentle

winds N of 30N and also N of the Bahamas, where seas are 3 to 4 

ft.



Farther east, 1024 mb high pressure is east of the front near 

32N35W, and a 1000 mb gale center is north of Madeira near 

36N13W. This pattern is supporting a large area of fresh to 

strong N winds and 8 to 14 ft seas over the eastern Atlantic 

north of 20N and east of 30W, reaching minimal gale force on the 

south and western side of the low. Moderate to fresh trade winds

prevail between 30W and the central Atlantic surface low and

trough. Seas across this region are 5 to 8 ft in NE swell. 



For the forecast west of 55W, a stationary front and a surface 

trough, with a weak low along it, will persist over the central 

Atlantic between 50W and 60W over the next 48 hours. Fresh to 

strong SE to S winds and building seas are expected over the E 

side of the trough on Fri, then NW of it on Sat due to the 

pressure gradient between the trough/low and high pressure to the 

N. The low should dissipate by Sun, and the trough is forecast to 

drift westward over the forecast waters early next week. An area 

of fresh to strong easterly winds will persist near the northern 

end of the trough axis, affecting mainly the NE waters. A weak 

cold front will emerge off the northeast Florida coast late Sat 

night into Sun. 



$$

Stripling