####018004743####
AXPZ20 KNHC 020904

TWDEP 



Tropical Weather Discussion

NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL

1005 UTC Fri May 2 2025



Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from

03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and

from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following

information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations,

radar, and meteorological analysis.



Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through

0855 UTC.



...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...



The monsoon trough extends from Costa Rica near 09N84W and 

continues westward to 07N110W. The ITCZ stretches from 07N110W 

to 06N125W and beyond 06N140W. Scattered moderate to isolated 

strong convection is present from 03N to 11N and east of 100W. 

Similar convection is evident from 04N to 10N and west of 133W.



...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...



An expansive 1029 mb high pressure system centered north of

Hawaii extends weakly to the Revillagigedo Islands. A recent

scatterometer satellite pass captured gentle to moderate NW winds

over much of the offshore waters of Baja California. Fresh NW

winds are noted south of Punta Eugenia. Moderate seas are prevalent

across these waters. Moderate to locally fresh SW winds and 

slight to moderate seas are noted in the Gulf of California.



Latest satellite-derived wind data also showed fresh to locally

strong NW winds off the coast of Jalisco. Seas in these waters

are moderate. In the remainder of the Mexican offshore waters, 

including the Gulf of Tehuantepec, moderate or weaker winds and 

moderate seas prevail.



For the forecast, moderate to locally fresh NW winds will

continue across the Baja waters today through Sat morning, ahead

of an approaching cold front. The cold front will move into the 

Baja Norte waters Sat evening and reach the central Baja waters 

Sun, accompanied by a significant increase in winds and seas 

across the Baja offshore waters, and strong to near gale-force 

westerly gap winds across the Gulf of California through Mon 

morning. S to SW winds are expected across the Gulf of 

Tehuantepec through the weekend. Seas west of Guadalupe Island 

will peak near 16 ft Sun night into Mon morning.



...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, 

AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...



The monsoon trough continues to generate showers and isolated

thunderstorms across the nearshore and offshore waters of Costa

Rica, Panama and Colombia. A recent scatterometer satellite pass

indicate that strong to near gale-force southerly winds are found

in the areas with the strongest convection. Mariners should use

caution navigating these waters. Weak high pressure north of the

area supports gentle to locally moderate winds and slight to

moderate seas across the Gulfs of Papagayo and Panama. Mainly

moderate southerly winds and seas of 4-6 ft are found south of

05N.



For the forecast, moderate winds are expected today in the 

Papagayo region before diminish during the weekend. Gentle 

northerly winds across the Gulf of Panama will become light and 

variable into the weekend. Gentle to moderate S to SW winds will 

continue across the waters between the Galapagos Islands, Ecuador

and Colombia into Sat then will become SW to W Sun through Mon.

Winds will increase south of the monsoon trough late this 

weekend into early next week, resulting in moderate to fresh 

westerly winds east of 90W.



...REMAINDER OF THE AREA....



A strong cold front is approaching the far northwest waters, 

while a broad subtropical ridge positioned north of Hawaii 

dominates the remainder of the tropical eastern Pacific. The 

pressure gradient between the aforementioned ridge and the ITCZ 

sustain moderate to locally fresh easterly winds from the ITCZ to

20N and west of 110W. This was confirmed by a recent

scatterometer satellite pass, which also suggested that strong

winds are occurring in the western waters in association with the

convection in the area. Seas in these waters are 6-9 ft. 

Elsewhere, moderate or weaker winds and moderate seas prevail.



For the forecast, the aforementioned cold front will enter the 

NW waters this afternoon and reach from Southern California to 

30N122W to 26N140W Sat evening, and from central Baja California 

to 23N140W by Sun evening. Strong high pressure building behind 

the front will promote fresh to locally strong N to NE winds and 

building seas to 16 ft behind the front through the weekend, 

with strongest winds and highest seas occurring E of 130W.



$$

Delgado