####018006973####
AXNT20 KNHC 020922

TWDAT 



Tropical Weather Discussion

NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL

1215 UTC Fri May 2 2025



Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America

Gulf of America, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South

America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the

Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite

imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.



Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 

0700 UTC.



...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... 



The monsoon trough axis enters the Atlantic near 08.5N13W and 

continues southwestward to 04N26.5W. The ITCZ extends from 

04N26.5W to east of Brazil near 00N46W. Widely scattered moderate

convection is noted from 02N to 08N between the coast of Africa

and 25W.



...GULF OF AMERICA...



Recent ASCAT scatterometer data showed fresh NE to E winds near

the coast of Campeche and fresh easterly winds in the Straits of

Florida with 1014 mb high pressure analyzed SE of Louisiana near

29N88W, and a pair of weak troughs, one from near the coast near

Tampa Bay Florida to NW of the Dry Tortugas, and the other just

west of the Yucatan Peninsula. Winds are moderate or weaker

elsewhere. Seas are 4 to 6 ft near the highest winds, and 3 to 5 

ft elsewhere, except 3 ft of less in the NE Gulf coastal waters. 

The latest radar and satellite data shows scattered showers and 

isolated thunderstorms in the NW Gulf ahead of an outflow boundary

analyzed by the Weather Prediction Center near the Texas coast.



For the forecast, high pressure will be the main feature 

controlling the weather pattern across the basin through tonight. 

The associated pressure gradient will maintain moderate to fresh 

east to southeast winds over the basin through Sat morning, except

gentle to moderate in the NE Gulf. East winds will pulse to 

strong speeds north of the Yucatan peninsula and over the Bay of 

Campeche tonight and Sat night in association with a diurnal 

trough. Moderate to fresh E winds and moderate seas are expected 

across the Straits of Florida through tonight. A weak cold front 

will reach the northern Gulf early Sat before shifting east of the

basin Sun night. High pressure will then build southward across 

the Gulf leading to mostly moderate to fresh easterly winds over 

most of the forecast zones early next week, increasing to fresh to

strong over the western Gulf by early Tue as the gradient 

tightens. 



...CARIBBEAN SEA... 



The pressure gradient between a weak 1021 mb high pressure 

centered over the western Atlantic and lower pressures over

northern Colombia is supporting fresh to strong NE to E winds 

across the Windward Passage and in the lee of Central Cuba per

earlier ASCAT scatterometer data. Seas are 4 to 6 ft across the

Windward Passage. In additionally, this pattern is supporting 

moderate to fresh NE to E winds south of Dominican Republic,

locally strong near Cabo Beata, and locally fresh offshore 

Colombia. Gentle to moderate E winds and 2 to 5 ft seas are noted 

across the remainder of the waters. A few showers and 

thunderstorms are active near the monsoon trough off the coast of 

Colombia and eastern Panama south of 13N. Divergent flow aloft on

the southeast side of an upper trough that extends from the 

western Atlantic to the western Caribbean is supporting scattered 

showers and a few thunderstorms across the north central and 

northeast Caribbean, N of 14N, and across portions of Hispaniola.



For the forecast, high pressure over the western Atlantic 

combined with the Colombian low will support fresh to strong 

northeast winds through the Windward Passage and in the Lee of 

Cuba until around sunrise. Fresh northeast winds are expected 

south of the Dominican Republic, mainly near Cabo Beata through 

the morning. Fresh to strong northeast winds will materialize 

through the Windward Passage again tonight. Moderate to fresh 

winds will pulse north of Honduras, increasing to fresh to strong 

Tue night. Unsettled weather is expected to continue over most of 

the eastern Caribbean into the weekend. Otherwise, rather quiet 

conditions are expected over the basin into early next week.



...ATLANTIC OCEAN...



A middle to upper level trough extends W-SW across the 

Hispaniola. This feature is creating unstable atmospheric 

conditions to the south and east of it, and supporting active 

weather. Scattered showers and thunderstorms are occurring S of 

22N between Hispaniola and 63W. A 1014 mb low pressure has been

analyzed near 27N53W. A surface trough extends southwestward from

the low pressure to the northeastern Caribbean. Scattered to 

numerous showers and thunderstorms are active from 20N northward 

to 31N between 42W and the low pressure at 51W. Northwest of the 

low, a stationary front reaches from 31N53.5W to 26N65W. Near

31.5N71.5W a 1021 mb high is centered. The pressure gradient 

between the high and the other surface features is producing 

moderate to fresh NE winds to the west of the low and surface 

trough, with fresh to strong SE winds and 6 to 8 ft seas SE of 

the low from 21N to 28N between 44W and 51W. Seas of 5 to 7 ft 

prevail to the east of the Bahamas. Gentle to moderate winds are 

elsewhere over the SW N Atlantic, except fresh through the 

Straits of Florida and fresh to strong across the approach to the 

Windward Passage.



Farther east, 1023 mb high pressure is east of the front near 

31.5N34.5W, and a 1004 mb low center is approaching the SW Iberian

Peninsula near 37N09W. This pattern is supporting a large area of

moderate to fresh N to NE winds and 8 to 13 ft seas over the 

eastern Atlantic around the SE and S periphery of the high from

06N to 27N and E of 50W. Seas are 7 to 10 ft from near the low

center southwestward offshore Africa from the Cabo Verde Islands

northward and east of 35W. Winds are moderate or weaker across the

remainder of the waters with 4 to 7 ft seas.



For the forecast west of 55W, a stationary front and a surface 

trough, with a weak low along it, will persist over the central 

Atlantic between 50W and 60W over the next 48 hours or so. Fresh 

to strong NE to E winds and building seas to rough are expected 

over the NW part of it today and Sat due to the pressure gradient 

between the trough/low and high pressure to the N. The low should 

dissipate by Sun, and the trough is forecast to drift westward 

over the forecast waters through at least early next week. An area

of fresh to strong easterly winds and rough seas will persist 

near the northern end of the trough axis affecting mainly the NE 

waters. Looking ahead, a weak cold front may approach then stall 

near the southeastern U.S. coast late Sat night into Sun. 



$$

Lewitsky