####018003734####
AXPZ20 KNHC 021526

TWDEP 



Tropical Weather Discussion

NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL

1605 UTC Fri May 2 2025



Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from

03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and

from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following

information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations,

radar, and meteorological analysis.



Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through

1500 UTC.



...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...



The monsoon trough extends from 09N84W to 07N110W. The ITCZ

extends from 07N110W to beyond 05N140W. Scattered moderate

convection is active from 05N to 08N east of 105W.



...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...



High pressure off Baja California is diminishing ahead of a cold

front approaching from the west, resulting in gentle to moderate

NW winds off Baja California, except for fresh winds funneling

off the coast of Cabo San Lucas, and Cabo Corrientes as noted in

earlier scatterometer satellite data. Light breezes continue 

elsewhere over the Gulf of California and the remainder of 

southern Mexico south of 20N. Combined seas are 4 to 6 ft in a 

mix of NW and SW swell, except for slight seas over the Gulf of 

California.



For the forecast, the moderate to locally fresh NW winds will 

continue across the Baja waters through Sat morning, ahead of the

approaching cold front. The cold front will move into the Baja 

Norte waters Sat evening and reach the central Baja waters Sun, 

accompanied by a significant increase in winds and seas across 

the Baja offshore waters, and strong to near gale-force westerly 

gap winds across the Gulf of California through Mon morning. 

Large NW swell will follow the front, with combined seas in 

excess of 8 ft reaching the waters off Punta Eugenia by early 

Sun, and Cabo San Lazaro Mon. Relatively benign marine conditions

will persist elsewhere off southern Mexico through early next 

week.



...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, 

AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...



The monsoon trough continues to generate showers and isolated

thunderstorms across the nearshore and offshore waters from

Colombia to Guatemala. Weak high pressure north of the area 

supports gentle to locally moderate winds and slight to moderate 

seas across the Gulfs of Papagayo and Panama. Mainly moderate 

southerly winds and seas of 4-6 ft primarily in SW swell are 

found south of 05N.



For the forecast, gentle to moderate breezes will persist across

the waters off Central America, Colombia and Ecuador through 

early next week, with moderate SW swell.



...REMAINDER OF THE AREA....



A strong cold front is moving into the discussion area from the

northwest. High pressure ahead of the front is dissipating,

allowing winds to diminish over the region. Fresh trade winds and

seas to 8 ft are still active from 05N to 15N west of 135W, but 

gentle to moderate winds and 5 to 7 ft combined seas in NW swell are

noted elsewhere west of 110W. Gentle to moderate breezes and 4 to

6 ft combined seas primarily in SW swell are noted east of 110W.





For the forecast, the aforementioned cold front will continue to

move across the waters north of 20N through late Sat, and reach from

central Baja California to 23N140W by Sun evening. Strong high 

pressure building behind the front will promote fresh to locally 

strong N to NE winds and building seas to 16 ft behind the front 

through the weekend, with strongest winds and highest seas 

occurring east of 130W.



$$

Christensen