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AXNT20 KNHC 080601

TWDAT 



Tropical Weather Discussion

NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL

0615 UTC Wed Oct 8 2025



Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America

Gulf of America, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South

America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the

Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite

imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.



Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 

0600 UTC.



...SPECIAL FEATURES...



Tropical Storm Jerry is centered near 13.1N 49.8W at 08/0600 UTC

or 830 nm ESE of the Northern Leeward Islands, moving WNW at 20

kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 1003 mb. Maximum

sustained wind speed is 45 kt with gusts to 55 kt. Seas are 

peaking between 12 and 17 ft north and east of the center. 

Numerous moderate to isolated strong convection within 200 nm 

south of the center and about 100 nm east and west of the center.

Jerry general motion is expected to continue with a decrease in 

forward speed during the next couple of days, followed by a turn 

toward the north-northwest and north on Friday. On the forecast 

track, the core of the system is expected to be near or to the 

north of the northern Leeward Islands late Thursday and Friday. 

Strengthening is forecast during the next few days, and Jerry is 

expected to become a hurricane by late tonight or Thursday. On 

Thursday, 2 to 4 inches of rain are expected across the Leeward 

Islands due to Jerry. This rainfall brings a risk of flash 

flooding, especially in areas of higher terrain. Swells generated

by Jerry are expected to reach the Leeward and Windward Islands 

on Thursday, then spread westward toward the Greater Antilles on 

Friday. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and

rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local 

weather office.

 

Please read the latest HIGH SEAS FORECAST issued by the National 

Hurricane Center at website:

https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.SHTML for more details. 

For the latest Forecast/Advisory on Jerry, please visit website:

https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/cyclones/ for more information.



Significant Rainfall Across Eastern Mexico:

An upper-level low and its related surface trough will gradually

drift westward across the Bay of Campeche toward eastern Mexico

over the next few days. Aided by abundant tropical moisture

across the region, there is a high potential for heavy rain for

the coastal areas from southern Tamaulipas State southward to

southern Veracruz State, including the eastern parts of San Luis

Potosl, Hidalgo and Puebla States. The heaviest rainfalls are

expected near the Tamaulipas/San Luis Potosi border, and across 

northern and central Veracruz State. With the ground in the 

region already saturated from earlier rainfall, this will greatly

increase the chance for flash and urban flooding. Please stay up

to date with the latest forecast and possible flood statements 

from your local weather agency.



...TROPICAL WAVES...



An eastern Atlantic tropical wave is near 20W from 23N southward,

and moving west at 10 to 15 kt. Scattered moderate convection is 

from 06N to 10N between 20W and 26W.



A tropical wave is over the eastern Caribbean along 65W, moving 

west around 10 kt. Numerous moderate convection is active from 17N

to 22N between 60W and 66W. 



A tropical wave is over the western Caribbean along 76W, moving 

west at 5 to 10 kt. Scattered moderate convection is from 17N to 

21N between 76W and 80W.



...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... 



A monsoon trough enters the Atlantic near 16N17W, then curves 

west- southwestward across 06N30W. The ITCZ extends from 06N30W to

06N42W. Scattered moderate convection is present from 01N to 05N 

between 26W and 38.5W.



...GULF OF AMERICA...



Please refer to the Special Features section on potential heavy 

rain across eastern Mexico.



Scattered moderate convection is found over the the SE Gulf

including the Straits of Florida in association to a trough. 

Moderate to locally fresh NE to E winds are found over the eastern

Gulf with seas 3 to 4 ft. Scattered moderate convection and fresh

to locally strong NE to E winds are found across the Bay of 

Campeche in the southwest Gulf due to a trough of low pressure. 

Seas are 4 to 6 ft in this area. Some slow development of this 

system is possible before it moves inland over southern Mexico 

later today or early Thursday. Regardless of development, areas of

heavy rain and gusty winds are likely across portions of southern

Mexico during the next day or so. This system has a low chance of

development in the next 48 hours. Gentle to moderate breezes and 

1 to 3 ft are noted elsewhere. 



For the forecast, high pressure across the eastern U.S. will 

build modestly across the Gulf basin throughout the week. Moderate

to locally fresh NE to E winds are expected through the remainder

of the week. A trough of low pressure located over the western 

Yucatan Peninsula is producing a large area of disorganized 

showers and thunderstorms across south-central and southwest 

portions of the Gulf. This system is expected to move westward and

emerge over the Bay of Campeche tonight, and some slow 

development possible before it moves inland over southern Mexico 

late Wednesday or early Thursday. Regardless of development, 

showers and thunderstorms and strong gusty winds are likely across

waters north of the Yucatan Peninsula and across the southwestern

Gulf through Wed night. A cold front is expected to sink 

southward across the northern Gulf Thu night through Fri.



...CARIBBEAN SEA...



Please read the Special Features section about newly formed 

Tropical Storm Jerry in the central tropical Atlantic which 

might affect the northern Leeward Islands toward the weekend.



Gentle to moderate mainly east breezes prevail across the basin. 

NE swell from the Atlantic is penetrating through the Mona and 

Anegada Passages, supporting 3 to 5 ft combined seas reaching the 

coast of central Venezuela and northeast Colombia. Elsewhere, 

generally 2 to 4 ft seas are noted across the basin. 



For the forecast, moderate trade winds across the south-central 

Caribbean and Gulf of Honduras will pulse to locally fresh tonight

as a weak pressure gradient continues across the region. Across 

the Atlantic, Jerry is expected to gradually intensify, reaching 

near 13.6N 51.5W Wed morning, strengthen to a hurricane near 16.5N

58.3W Thu morning, near 19.8N 62.4W Fri morning, and near 22.1N 

63.3W Fri evening. Jerry is then expected to move northward and 

away from the region. Fresh to locally strong southerly winds will

sweep across the Caribbean E of 65W Thu night through early Sat 

as Jerry passes just E of the Leeward Islands. 



...ATLANTIC OCEAN...



Please refer to the Special Features section at the very beginning

on newly formed Tropical Storm Jerry.



A stationary front extends southwestward from the northeastern

Atlantic across 31N42W and 25N66W, then continues as a shearline 

to near the northwest Bahamas. Scattered showers and thunderstorms

are active along the front. Fresh to locally strong E winds and 7

to 10 ft seas are evident north of the front. A surface trough is

also over the Bahamas supporting scattered moderate convection 

across the area. Farther east, fresh to strong NE winds and 7 to 

10 ft seas are noted over the eastern Atlantic, mainly north of 

15N and east of 30W. Saharan dust is also noted in this region. 

Gentle to moderate breezes and 5 to 7 ft seas primarily in 

northerly swell persist elsewhere, outside the main impact area of

Jerry. 



For the forecast west of 55W, Rough seas in N to NE swell across the

regional waters will gradually subside tonight. Fresh to locally 

strong NE to E winds north of a stationary front extending from 

the central Atlantic near 26N55W to 23N63W then through the NW 

Bahamas will diminish tonight through Thu as the front drifts 

northward and dissipates. Jerry is expected to gradually 

intensify, reaching near 13.6N 51.5W Wed morning, strengthen to a 

hurricane near 16.5N 58.3W Thu morning, near 19.8N 62.4W Fri 

morning, and near 22.1N 63.3W Fri evening. Jerry will then change 

little in intensity as it moves to near 26.7N 63.6W Sat evening 

and to near 31.7N 60.1W Sun evening.



$$

KRV