####018005144####
AXNT20 KNHC 030432

TWDAT 



Tropical Weather Discussion

NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL

0615 UTC Sat May 3 2025



Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America

Gulf of America, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South

America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the

Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite

imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.



Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 

0429 UTC.



...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... 



The monsoon trough axis enters the Atlantic along the coast of

Guinea-Bissau near 11N16W and extends southwestward to 06N19W. 

The ITCZ extends from 06N19W to near 02N48W.



...GULF OF AMERICA...



A high pressure ridge extends from the western Atlantic through

the lower Mississippi Valley. A weak diurnal trough is evident 

over the Yucatan Peninsula. This pattern is supporting gentle to 

moderate SE breezes the eastern Gulf, and mainly moderate SE 

winds over the western Gulf, although fresh to strong E winds are 

pulsing off the northern coast of the Yucatan Peninsula. Wave 

heights are 2 to 4 ft in the northeast Gulf, and 4 to 6 ft 

elsewhere. Scattered showers and thunderstorms are active off the

coast of TX and LA. 



For the forecast, a ridge will continue to dominate the Gulf 

waters through Sat morning supporting moderate to fresh east to 

southeast winds over most of the basin, with the exception of 

gentle to moderate winds in the NE Gulf. East winds will pulse to 

fresh to strong speeds north of the Yucatan peninsula and over the

Bay of Campeche at night through early next week in association 

with a diurnal trough, while mainly moderate to locally fresh E to

SE winds and moderate seas are expected across the Straits of 

Florida through Tue. A weak cold front will reach the northern 

Gulf waters early Sat, and remain there on Sun before shifting 

east of the basin on Mon. High pressure will then build southward 

across the Gulf leading to mostly moderate to fresh easterly winds

over most of the forecast zones early next week, increasing to 

fresh to strong over the western Gulf by early Tue as the pressure

gradient tightens. Another weak front may reach the NW Gulf by 

early Thu.



...CARIBBEAN SEA... 



A weak pressure gradient between the Bermuda High and a 1010 mb 

Colombian Low is only forcing generally gentle to moderate trades 

and 2 to 4 ft seas across most of the Caribbean. The exceptions 

are fresh NE winds and 4 to 5 ft seas over the Windward Passage 

off Colombia, and offshore of northern Honduras. Aside from the 

convection in the southwest Caribbean associated with the Pacific 

monsoon trough, no other significant deep convection is depicted

at this time. 



For the forecast, high pressure over the western Atlantic 

combined with the Colombian low will support fresh northeast winds

through the Windward Passage, in the lee of central Cuba, and 

south of the Dominican Republic, mainly near Cabo Beata, tonight. 

Moderate to fresh E to SE winds will pulse north of Honduras, 

increasing to fresh to strong Tue night and Wed night. Unsettled 

weather is expected to continue over most of the eastern Caribbean

into the weekend. Otherwise, gentle to moderate trades and slight

to moderate seas are expected over the basin into early next 

week. 



...ATLANTIC OCEAN...



A surface trough extends from a 1018 mb low pressure near 29.5N52W

to a 1014 mb low pressure near 25N51W to 14N59W. Scattered moderate

convection is depicted east of these features from 21N to 28N 

between 38W and 50.5W. A 1025 mb high pressure is centered 

northeast of Bermuda near 39N59W. This pattern is supporting 

moderate to fresh NE to E winds and 5 to 7 ft seas from 18N to 29N 

and west of 52W. Fresh to strong SE winds and seas to 8 ft are 

ongoing within 300 nm in the east and southeast semicircles of the

1014 mb low. Elsewhere, mostly moderate NE to E winds prevail 

across the eastern Atlantic, with 5 to 9 ft seas in N swell. 



For the forecast west of 55W, a surface trough extends from a 

1018 mb low pressure near 29.5N52W to a 1014 mb low pressure near 

25N51W to 14N59W. These features will generally persist over the 

central Atlantic between 50W and 60W through Sat. Fresh to strong 

NE to E winds and moderate to rough seas are expected over the NW 

part of it tonight and Sat due to the pressure gradient between 

the trough/low and high pressure to the N. Meanwhile a cold front 

from 31N60W to 30N65W to 31N69W will merge with these features 

Sat. The lows should dissipate by Sun, while the trough is 

forecast to drift westward over the forecast waters through at 

least early next week. An area of fresh to strong easterly winds 

and rough seas will persist near the northern end of the trough 

axis affecting mainly the NE waters. Looking ahead, a weak cold 

front may approach then stall near the southeastern U.S. coast Sun

and Mon. 



$$

KRV