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AXPZ20 KNHC 030827

TWDEP 



Tropical Weather Discussion

NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL

1005 UTC Sat May 3 2025



Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from

03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and

from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following

information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations,

radar, and meteorological analysis.



Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through

0825 UTC.



...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...



The monsoon trough extends from Costa Rica near 09N84W to 

08N110W. The ITCZ stretches from 08N110W to 07N125W and beyond 

02N140W. Scattered moderate convection is present from 03N to 

11N and east of 117W.



...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...



A broad subtropical ridge located well to the northwest of Mexico

continues to dominate the discussion waters. A recent 

scatterometer satellite pass captured moderate to fresh NW winds 

across the offshore waters of Baja California. The strongest

winds are occurring south of Punta Eugenia and off Cabo San

Lucas. Seas in these waters are 5-7 ft. Moderate to locally fresh

NW-N winds and moderate seas are also found in the offshore

waters of SW Mexico. Elsewhere, including the Gulfs of California

and Tehuantepec, moderate or weaker winds and slight to moderate

seas prevail.



For the forecast, moderate to locally fresh NW winds will 

continue across the Baja waters today, ahead of the approaching 

cold front. The cold front will move into the Baja Norte waters 

this evening and reach the central Baja waters Sun, accompanied 

by a significant increase in winds and seas across the Baja 

offshore waters, and strong to near gale-force westerly gap winds

across the Gulf of California through Mon morning. Strong winds

and seas to 8 ft are also expected off Cabo San Lucas late Sun

into Mon. Large NW swell will follow the front, with combined 

seas in excess of 8 ft reaching the waters off Punta Eugenia by 

early Sun, Cabo San Lazaro Mon, and the Revillagigedo Islands by 

Tue. The highest seas may reach 16 ft off Guadalupe Island. 

Relatively benign marine conditions will persist elsewhere off 

southern Mexico through early next week. 



...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, 

AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...



Weather remains unsettled across the waters east of 90W as

showers and isolated thunderstorms associated with the monsoon

trough also impact southern Central America and Colombia. A weak

pressure gradient persists across the offshore waters, resulting

in gentle to locally moderate winds and slight to moderate seas 

across the Gulfs of Papagayo and Panama. Mainly moderate 

southerly winds and seas of 5-7 ft primarily in SW swell are 

found south of 05N.



For the forecast, no important changes are anticipated through

the forecast period as gentle to moderate breezes will persist 

across the waters off Central America, Colombia and Ecuador, 

with primarily moderate SW swell.



...REMAINDER OF THE AREA....



The recent scatterometer satellite pass showed quite well the strong

cold front moving across the far northwest waters of the tropical

eastern Pacific. The front extends from 30N131W to 27N140W. Fresh

to locally strong NE winds are evident behind the frontal

boundary. Seas in these waters are 7-9 ft. The rest of the basin

is under the influence of a broad subtropical ridge centered 

north of the area. The pressure gradient between this ridge and 

lower pressures in the deep tropics supports moderate to locally 

fresh easterly winds and seas of 6-8 ft north of the ITCZ and 

west of 110W. Elsewhere, moderate or weaker winds and moderate 

seas prevail.



For the forecast, the aforementioned cold front will continue to

move across the waters north of 20N through late Sat, and reach from

central Baja California to 23N140W by Sun evening. Strong high 

pressure building behind the front will promote fresh to locally 

strong N to NE winds and building seas to 16 ft behind the front 

through the weekend, with strongest winds and highest seas 

occurring east of 130W. Winds and seas will diminish late Mon

into Tue.



$$

Delgado