####018004120####
AXPZ20 KNHC 031539

TWDEP 



Tropical Weather Discussion

NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL

1605 UTC Sat May 3 2025



Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from

03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and

from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following

information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations,

radar, and meteorological analysis.



Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through

1500 UTC.



...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...



The monsoon trough extends from Costa Rica near 09N84W to 10N90W

to 08N110W. The ITCZ extends from 08N110W to beyond 04N140W. 

Scattered moderate convection is present from 04N to 11N and 

east of 120W.



...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...



A weak pressure pattern continues across the region ahead of a

cold front approaching from the west. A recent scatterometer 

satellite pass indicated fresh NW winds funneling off the coast 

of Cabo San Lucas, but with gentle to moderate breezes elsewhere 

over Mexican offshore waters except for light breezes in the Gulf

of California. Wave heights are mostly 4 to 6 ft across the area,

except for 1 to 3 ft in the Gulf of California. Light smoke from

agricultural and forest fires may be impacting the coastal waters

of southern Mexico based on onshore observations. 



For the forecast, the moderate to locally fresh NW winds will 

continue across the Baja waters today, ahead of the approaching 

cold front. The cold front will move into the Baja Norte waters 

this evening and reach the central Baja waters Sun, accompanied 

by a significant increase in winds and seas across the Baja 

offshore waters, and strong to near gale-force westerly gap winds

across the Gulf of California through Mon morning. Strong winds 

and seas to 8 ft are also expected off Cabo San Lucas late Sun 

into Mon. Large NW swell will follow the front, with combined 

seas in excess of 8 ft reaching the waters off Punta Eugenia by 

early Sun, Cabo San Lazaro Mon, and the Revillagigedo Islands by 

Tue. The highest seas may reach 16 ft off Guadalupe Island. 

Relatively benign marine conditions will persist elsewhere off 

southern Mexico through early next week.



...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, 

AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...



Weather remains unsettled across the waters east of 90W as

showers and isolated thunderstorms associated with the monsoon

trough also impact southern Central America and Colombia. A weak

pressure gradient persists across the offshore waters, resulting

in gentle to locally moderate winds and slight to moderate seas 

across the Gulfs of Papagayo and Panama. Mainly moderate 

southerly winds and seas of 5-7 ft primarily in SW swell are 

found south of 05N.



For the forecast, no important changes are anticipated through

the forecast period as gentle to moderate breezes will persist 

across the waters off Central America, Colombia and Ecuador, 

with primarily moderate SW swell.



...REMAINDER OF THE AREA....



A cold front extending from central California to 30N130W to

28N135W where it becomes stationary to 27N150W. Earlier

scatterometer indicated fresh N to NE winds behind the front.

Altimeter satellite and Sofar buoy data indicated 7 to 9 ft seas

following the front as well. Farther south, fresh trade winds and

5 to 8 ft seas are ongoing in the deep tropics west of 120W.

Moderate winds and seas are noted elsewhere. 



For the forecast, the aforementioned cold front will continue to

move across the waters north of 20N through late today, and 

reach from central Baja California to 23N140W by Sun evening. 

Strong high pressure building behind the front will promote fresh

to locally strong N to NE winds and building seas to 16 ft 

behind the front through the weekend, with strongest winds and 

highest seas occurring east of 130W. Winds and seas will diminish

late Mon into Tue.



$$

Christensen