####018004780####
AXPZ20 KNHC 040404

TWDEP 



Tropical Weather Discussion

NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL

0405 UTC Sun May 4 2025



Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from

03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and

from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following

information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations,

radar, and meteorological analysis.



Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through

0350 UTC.



...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...



The monsoon trough extends from Costa Rica near 10N85W to 09N100W

to 08N113W. The ITCZ extends from 08N113W to a trough near 130W,

then from 06N133W to beyond 05N140W. Numerous moderate to 

isolated strong convection is present from 05N to 10N between 

81W and 91W, from 05N to 11N between 104W and 118W, and from 07N

to 10N between 129W and 133W.



...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...



The pressure pattern has tighten slightly across the region as

high pressure builds behind an approaching cold front from the 

west. Moderate to fresh NW winds are ongoing across the Baja

California offshores waters, except for locally fresh to strong

winds continuing off the coast of Cabo San Lucas, and along the

coastal waters between Punta Eugenia and Cabo San Lazaro. A

prefrontal trough along the Gulf of California is supporting 

fresh to strong SW winds over the waters N of 29N while light 

breezes prevail across the remainder Gulf. Gentle to moderate 

breezes are elsewhere over the S and SW Mexican offshore waters. 

Wave heights are mostly 5 to 6 ft in SW swell across the area S 

of 23N, and 7 to 8 ft N of 23N. In the northern Gulf of 

California, seas are 3 to 4 ft and 1 to 2 ft elsewhere.  



For the forecast, the cold front will move into the Baja

California Norte waters tonight and reach the central Baja 

waters Sun. The front will be accompanied by fresh to strong NW 

winds and rough seas to 13 ft N of Punta Eugenia and mainly 

moderate to fresh winds and moderate seas elsewhere across the

Baja offshores. Strong to near gale-force westerly gap winds 

are also expected across the northern Gulf of California through

early Mon morning when the front is forecast to dissipate. 

Strong winds and seas to 8 ft will continue off Cabo San Lucas 

through Mon. Large NW swell associated with the front, with 

combined seas in excess of 8 ft will reach the waters off Punta 

Eugenia by early Sun, Cabo San Lazaro Mon, and the Revillagigedo 

Islands by Tue. The highest seas may reach 17 ft off Guadalupe 

Island. Light to gentle breezes, except moderate to fresh NW

winds off Cabo Corrientes, will persist elsewhere off southern 

Mexico through Thu night.



...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, 

AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...



Weather remains unsettled across the waters between 80W and 90W 

as showers and isolated thunderstorms associated with the monsoon

trough also impact Costa Rica and portions of Panama. This shower

activity is supporting moderate SW to W winds across these offshore

waters while a weak pressure gradient elsewhere is resulting in 

light to gentle winds. Seas of 5-6 ft primarily in SW swell are

ongoing across the offshore waters between Ecuador and The 

Galapagos as well as the Central America offshore waters. 



For the forecast, no important changes are anticipated through

the forecast period as gentle to moderate breezes will persist 

across the waters off Central America, Colombia and Ecuador, 

with primarily moderate SW swell.



...REMAINDER OF THE AREA....



A cold front extends from southern California to 30N121W then

transitions to a surface trough that continues along 28N130W to

26N140W. Fresh to strong N to NW winds follow the front, which is

also impacting the subtropical waters N of 26N with rough seas in

the 8 to 9 ft range. Farther south, the extension of the subtropical

ridge to near 14N, is supporting a broad area of moderate to fresh

trade winds and 7 to 8 ft seas in the deep tropics west of 123W.

Moderate or weaker winds and moderate seas are noted elsewhere. 



For the forecast, the aforementioned cold front will continue to

move across the waters north of 20N through tonight, and reach 

from central Baja California to 23N140W by Sun evening. Strong 

high pressure building behind the front will promote fresh to 

locally strong N to NE winds and building seas to 16 ft behind 

the front through the remainder weekend, with strongest winds 

and highest seas occurring east of 130W. Winds and seas will 

diminish late Mon into Tue. 



$$

Ramos