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AXPZ20 KNHC 040909

TWDEP 



Tropical Weather Discussion

NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL

1005 UTC Sun May 4 2025



Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from

03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and

from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following

information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations,

radar, and meteorological analysis.



Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through

0905 UTC.



...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...



The monsoon trough extends from Costa Rica near 10N85W to 09N100W

to 09N113W. The ITCZ extends from 09N113W to a trough near 132W,

then from 06N135W to beyond 04N140W. Numerous moderate to 

isolated strong convection is present from 05N to 11N between 

81W and 91W, from 05N to 11N between 102W and 119W, and from 04N

to 11N between 128W and 134W.



...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...



The pressure pattern has tighten slightly across the region as

high pressure builds behind a cold front that entered Baja

California Norte early this morning. Moderate to fresh NW winds 

are ongoing across the Baja California offshores waters, except 

for locally fresh to strong NW winds N of Punta Eugenia. A 

prefrontal trough along the Gulf of California is supporting 

fresh to strong SW winds over the waters N of 28N while moderate

to locally fresh W winds are across the remainder Gulf. Gentle 

to moderate breezes are elsewhere over the S and SW Mexican 

offshore waters. Wave heights are mostly 5 to 7 ft in SW swell 

across the area S of 25N, and 7 to 9 ft N of 25N. In the 

northern Gulf of California, seas are 5 to 7 ft and 1 to 4 ft 

elsewhere. 



For the forecast, the cold front will reach the central Baja

California waters today and will be accompanied by fresh to 

strong NW winds and rough seas to 13 ft N of Punta Eugenia, and 

mainly moderate to fresh winds and moderate seas elsewhere across

the Baja offshores. Strong to near gale-force westerly gap winds

are also expected across the northern Gulf of California through

early Mon morning when the front is forecast to dissipate. 

Fresh to strong winds and seas to 8 ft will continue off Cabo 

San Lucas through Mon. Large NW swell associated with the front, 

with combined seas in excess of 8 ft will reach the waters off

Cabo San Lazaro Mon, and the Revillagigedo Islands by Tue. The 

highest seas may reach 17 ft off Guadalupe Island. Light to 

gentle breezes, except moderate to fresh NW winds off Cabo 

Corrientes, will persist elsewhere off southern Mexico through 

Thu night.



...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, 

AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...



Weather remains unsettled across the waters between 80W and 90W 

as showers and isolated thunderstorms associated with the monsoon

trough also impact Costa Rica and portions of Panama. This shower

activity is supporting moderate SW to W winds across these offshore

waters while a weak pressure gradient elsewhere is resulting in 

light to gentle winds. Seas of 5-6 ft primarily in SW swell are

ongoing across the offshore waters between Ecuador and The 

Galapagos as well as the Central America offshore waters. 



For the forecast, no important changes are anticipated through

the forecast period as gentle to moderate breezes will persist 

across the waters off Central America, Colombia and Ecuador, 

with primarily moderate SW swell.



...REMAINDER OF THE AREA....



A cold front extends from southern California to 31N116W then to

30N118W where it transitions to a surface trough that continues 

along 28N123W to 28N127W. Fresh to strong N to NW winds follow 

the front, which is also impacting the subtropical waters N of 

26N with rough seas in the 8 to 10 ft range. Farther south, the 

extension of the subtropical ridge to near 14N, is supporting a 

broad area of moderate to fresh trade winds and 7 to 8 ft seas in

the deep tropics west of 123W. Moderate or weaker winds and 

moderate seas are noted elsewhere. 



For the forecast, the aforementioned cold front will reach from 

central Baja California to 23N140W by this evening. Strong high 

pressure building behind the front will promote fresh to locally 

strong N to NE winds and building seas to 16 ft behind the front 

through the remainder weekend, with strongest winds and highest 

seas occurring east of 130W. Winds and seas will diminish late 

Mon into Tue. 



$$

Ramos