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AXNT20 KNHC 041743

TWDAT 



Tropical Weather Discussion

NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL

1815 UTC Sun May 4 2025



Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America

Gulf of America, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South

America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the

Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite

imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.



Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 

1630 UTC.



...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... 



The monsoon trough axis enters the Atlantic along the coast of

Senegal near 14N16.5W and extends south-southwestward to 08N18.5W

to 05N23W. The ITCZ extends from 04.5N26W to 06N33W to near the 

coast of Brazil at 00.5N50W. Scattered to locally numerous

moderate to strong convection noted from 00N to 05.5N between 06W

to 15.5W. Scattered moderate convection is noted from 01N to 07N 

between 18W and 47W.



...GULF OF AMERICA...



A cold front is moving very slowly across the eastern Gulf, and

extends from the Florida Big Bend to near 26.5N90W, then becomes

stationary and continues W-SW to the upper Mexican coast just 

north of La Pesca. Scattered showers on both sides of the front 

prevail across the Mexican coast and waters north of 24N and west 

of 96W. A pre-frontal trough extends from southwestern Florida to

near 25N86W to 24.5N93W. Scattered showers and moderate 

thunderstorms are occurring along and ahead of this trough east of

87W across south Florida and into the western Atlantic, supported

by divergence aloft ahead of a broad upper level trough across 

the eastern U.S. North of the front, moderate N to NE winds

prevail, except NW to W winds across the waters south of the

Florida Panhandle. Seas north of the front are 1 to 3 ft east of

88W, and 2 to 4 ft elsewhere. South of the front, broad cyclonic

winds prevail west of 85W, with light anticyclonic winds east of

85W. Seas are 2 ft or less eas of 88W and 2 to 4 ft west portions.

Scattered showers are along the coast between Veracruz and Cabo

Rojo. Light smoke from agricultural and forest fires over southern

Mexico continues to impact portions of the SW and central Gulf 

ahead of the front.



For the forecast, the slow moving cold front will stall and weaken

from near Sarasota, Florida to the central Gulf near 17N90W by Mon

morning. Gentle to moderate winds will dominate the basin through

early Mon, except fresh to strong at night near the northern 

Yucatan. Winds over the western zones will gradually strengthen 

Mon evening through the middle of next week. Winds will pulse to 

moderate to fresh in the Straits of Florida through mid-week, and

be gentle to moderate in the NE Gulf over the next several days. 

Another weak front may reach the NW Gulf midweek. Smoke from 

agricultural fires in southeastern Mexico is creating hazy 

conditions in some sections of the western Gulf, with the lowest 

reported visibility near the SW Gulf coast.



...CARIBBEAN SEA... 



Scattered showers and a few moderate thunderstorms are seen in a

90 nm wide band that extends from the northeast Caribbean westward

along about 16N to 74W and then northwestward across eastern

Jamaica and the adjacent coastal waters. Moderate to locally fresh

easterly trade winds prevail along and north of this weather, 

where seas are 3 to 4 ft. Light to moderate trades are found

elsewhere south of this weather, except for moderate to fresh 

winds across the Gulf of Honduras, per recent satellite 

scatterometer winds. Seas there are 2 to 4 ft. only isolated 

showers and thunderstorms are seen near the monsoon trough across

the southwest Caribbean. 



For the forecast, moderate to fresh east to southeast winds will 

pulse north of Honduras, increasing to fresh to strong speeds Tue 

night, Wed night and Thu night. Unsettled weather is expected to 

continue over most of the eastern Caribbean through the remainder 

of the weekend and well into next week. Gentle to moderate trades 

and slight to moderate seas are expected over the remainder of the

basin through the period, including in the Tropical N Atlantic. 



...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

 

1029 mb high pressure is centered across the central Atlantic near

37N48W. Two lingering low level troughs remains across the waters

north of 15N between 52W and 62W. Scattered showers and

thunderstorms prevail across the waters within 240 nm wither side

of the surface troughs, supported bu an upper level trough along

65W. The surface pressure gradient between the troughs and the 

high pressure to the north is producing fresh northeast to east winds

and moderate seas to 8 ft north of 25N between 45W and 60W. West

of the area, the Atlantic high extends a ridge southwestward to

the Straits of Florida, with moderate anticyclonic winds

prevailing. Offshore of Florida, fresh south to southwest winds 

prevail in advance of the cold front and pre-frontal trough over

the Gulf. Scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms dominate

the area from the northern Bahamas and southeast Florida coast

N-NE to offshore of Georgia, Some of these thunderstorms are

producing very gusty winds. Elsewhere to the east, ridging 

dominates the basin, supporting moderate to fresh trades. Seas are

generally 4 to 7 ft. 



For the forecast west of 55W, the pressure gradient between a broad

trough along 55W and high pressure over the west central Atlantic

is supporting fresh to locally strong northeast winds and 

moderate seas north of 27N and east of 60W. These conditions will 

gradually shift westward going into the early part of the week as 

the trough drifts westward. A weak cold front will approach then 

stall near the southeastern U.S. coast later today through Mon, 

and lift back north as warm front around the middle of the week. 

Expect scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms over the 

western waters through the rest of the weekend and into the early 

part of the week. 



$$

Stripling