####018004197#### AXPZ20 KNHC 050405 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 0405 UTC Mon May 5 2025 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from 03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0340 UTC. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... The monsoon trough extends from Costa Rica near 10N85W to 11N100W to 07N116W. The ITCZ extends from 07N117W to 07N130W to beyond 05N140W. Scattered moderate convection is from 02N to 10N E of 90W, from 05N to 12N between 98W and 117W, and from 05N to 13N between 117W and 133W. ...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... A surface trough, remnants of a cold front, extends across the northern Gulf of California to Punta Prieta in Baja California Sur to 21N124W. Strong to near-gale force SW winds are ongoing over the northern Gulf of California with seas to 8 ft. Fresh to strong NW winds and rough seas to 15 ft follow the front off Baja California Norte, with highest seas WNW of Guadalupe Island. Strong winds are also funneling off Cabo San Lucas where seas are 8 to 9 ft. Relatively benign marine conditions persist elsewhere over Mexican offshore waters. For the forecast, the surface trough will move through the southern Gulf of California Mon morning. Strong to near gale- force westerly gap winds will persist across the northern Gulf of California through tonight. Fresh to strong winds and seas to 8 ft will continue off Cabo San Lucas through Mon. Large NW swell associated with the trough, with combined seas in excess of 8 ft will reach the waters off Cabo San Lazaro Mon, the Revillagigedo Islands Tue and subside Wed evening. Peak seas to 17 ft are off Guadalupe Island. Light to gentle breezes, except moderate to fresh NW winds off Cabo Corrientes, will persist elsewhere off southern Mexico through Fri. ...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... Weather remains unsettled across the waters between 80W and 90W as showers and isolated thunderstorms associated with the monsoon trough also impact Costa Rica and Panama. This shower activity is supporting moderate to fresh SW to W winds across these offshore waters while a weak pressure gradient elsewhere is resulting in light to gentle winds. Seas of 5 to 6 ft primarily in SW swell are ongoing across the offshore waters between Ecuador and The Galapagos as well as the Central America offshore waters. For the forecast, gentle to locally moderate breezes will persist across the waters off Central America, Colombia and Ecuador, with primarily moderate SW swell through the middle of the week. Looking ahead, large SW swell is expected in Ecuadorian waters Tue night through Thu. ...REMAINDER OF THE AREA.... A surface trough, remnants of a cold front, extends across the northern Gulf of California to Punta Prieta in Baja California Sur to 21N124W. Fresh to strong N to NW winds follow the trough, which is also impacting the subtropical waters north of 22N and E of 131W with rough seas in the 8 to 14 ft range. Farther south, the extension of the subtropical ridge to near 17N, is supporting a broad area of moderate to fresh trade winds and 7 to 9 ft seas in the deep tropics west of 125W, with a component of N swell. Moderate or weaker winds and moderate seas are noted elsewhere. For the forecast, the aforementioned trough will dissipate as it moves southward off the coast of Baja California Sur. Strong high pressure building behind the trough will promote fresh to locally strong N to NE winds and building seas to 16 ft behind the front through the remainder weekend, with strongest winds and highest seas occurring east of 130W. Winds and seas will diminish late Mon into Tue. $$ Ramos ####018004374#### AXNT20 KNHC 050410 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 0615 UTC Mon May 5 2025 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of America, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0330 UTC. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough axis enters the Atlantic near 14N17W and extends to 08N17W to 05N20W. The ITCZ continues from 05N20W to 03N30W to 04N40W to 01N50W. Scattered moderate convection is ongoing from 03N to 06N between 20W and 27W. ...GULF OF AMERICA... A cold front is moving very slowly across the eastern Gulf, and extends from Crystal River, Florida, to 26N87W, then is stationary to just south of the U.S.-Mexico border. The surface trough that had been over the south-central Gulf ahead of the front, producing showers and thunderstorms offshore Florida, has dissipated, leaving the basin void of convection. Gentle to locally moderate SE to E winds dominate the western basin, with light to gentle winds in the east. Seas are 2 to 4 ft in the western Gulf and less than 2 ft in the eastern Gulf. Light smoke from agricultural and forest fires over southern Mexico covers most of the basin. For the forecast, the front will completely stall and weaken Mon morning along 25N/26N. Gentle to moderate winds will dominate the basin through early Mon. Winds over the western zones will gradually strengthen Mon evening to moderate to fresh, then to fresh to strong Mon night through Wed morning. Winds will pulse to moderate to fresh in the Straits of Florida through mid-week. Another weak front may reach the NW Gulf mid-week. Smoke from agricultural fires in southeastern Mexico is creating hazy conditions in some sections of the western Gulf, with the lowest reported visibility near the SW Gulf coast. ...CARIBBEAN SEA... Scattered thunderstorms are noted offshore eastern Jamaica, otherwise no convection is present in the basin. Mainly gentle trades dominate, although moderate trades encompass the central basin and the Gulf of Honduras, and light winds prevail in the far southwest basin. Seas are 2 to 4 ft. For the forecast, moderate to fresh east to southeast winds will pulse north of Honduras, increasing to fresh to strong speeds nightly starting Tue night. Unsettled weather is expected to continue over most of the eastern Caribbean well into the week. Gentle to moderate trades and slight to moderate seas are expected over the remainder of the basin through the period, including in the Tropical N Atlantic, pulsing to fresh nightly near the Windward Passage starting Mon night. ...ATLANTIC OCEAN... Broad ridging anchored by a surface high centered in the central Atlantic well north of the region is dominating the basin. There is a weak cold front that extends from 30N30W to 27N45W, and a surface trough along 57W from 19N to 26N. Neither feature is producing any convection, and the only sensible weather induced by either is some fresh E winds to the E of the trough. The only convection in the basin is being caused by upper level divergence in a band extending north from the NW Bahamas along 77W. Otherwise, winds are generally moderate or less, with seas of 4 to 7 ft. A zone of 7 to 9 ft seas are present where the aforementioned fresh winds are occurring, from roughly 25N to 29N between 52W and 58W. For the forecast west of 55W, the pressure gradient between a trough that extends north to south near 57W and a ridge of high pressure over the western Atlantic support fresh NE winds and moderate seas into early week as it shifts gradually westward. A weak cold front approaching the southeastern U.S. coast will stall through Mon, and lift back northwest as warm front around the middle of the week, then may slowly push offshore again at the end of the week. Expect scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms over the western waters into the early part of the week. $$ Konarik