####018004780####
AXNT20 KNHC 050824

TWDAT 



Tropical Weather Discussion

NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL

0015 UTC Mon May 5 2025



Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America

Gulf of America, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South

America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the

Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite

imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.



Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 

0810 UTC.



...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... 



The monsoon trough axis enters the Atlantic near the coast of

Guinea-Bissau at 11N15.5W and extends southwestward 05N22W. The 

ITCZ continues from 05N22W to the coast of Brazil at 02N51W.

Widely scattered moderate convection is ongoing from 01N to 06N

east of 21W, and also from 01N to 09N between 23W and 49W.



...GULF OF AMERICA...



A stationary front extends from near Tampa Bay, Florida to near 

the Texas Mexico border just south of Brownsville. Some isolated

to widely scattered showers are possible near and north of the

front. Winds are moderate or weaker across the basin, highest off

the Yucatan and south Texas coasts. Seas are 2 to 4 ft off the 

south Texas coast and Yucatan, and 3 ft or less elsewhere. Light 

smoke from agricultural and forest fires over southern Mexico 

covers most of the basin.



For the forecast, the stationary front will linger today while 

gradually washing out. Gentle to moderate winds will dominate the 

basin through this morning. Winds over the western zones will 

gradually strengthen this afternoon and evening to moderate to 

fresh, then to fresh to strong later tonight through Wed morning. 

Winds will pulse to moderate to fresh in the Straits of Florida 

through mid- week. Another weak front may reach the NW Gulf mid-

week. Smoke from agricultural fires in southeastern Mexico is 

creating hazy conditions in some sections of the western Gulf, 

with the lowest reported visibility near the SW Gulf coast. 



...CARIBBEAN SEA... 



Scattered showers thunderstorms are noted between eastern Jamaica

and Haiti just south of the Windward Passage, otherwise no 

convection is present in the basin. Moderate trades prevail across

the central Caribbean, as well as in the NW Caribbean west of 

85W. Seas are 2 to 4 ft, except 2 ft or less in the lee of Cuba.



For the forecast, moderate to fresh east to southeast winds will 

pulse north of Honduras, increasing to fresh to strong speeds 

nightly starting Tue night. Unsettled weather is expected to 

continue over most of the eastern Caribbean well into the week. 

Gentle to moderate trades and slight to moderate seas are expected

over the remainder of the basin through the period, including in 

the Tropical N Atlantic, pulsing to fresh nightly near the 

Windward Passage starting tonight. 



...ATLANTIC OCEAN...



The pressure gradient between a trough that extends from 27N59W 

to 20N56.5W and a ridge of high pressure over the western Atlantic

is supporting fresh to locally strong northeast winds and seas to

locally rough north east of the axis. The ridge is anchored by a

1029 mb high pressure well north of the area near 37N47W. A cold

front is east and southeast of these features, reaching from north

of 31N27W to 27N44W. Another front is well to the west, along and

just off the coast from near Charleston, South Carolina to near

Daytona Beach, Florida. Winds across the tropical Atlantic are

mainly moderate or weaker away from the surface trough in the

central waters, while winds just north of 31N ahead of the front

off the SE United States are fresh to strong there. Seas are

mainly 3 to 6 ft away from the central waters trough, slightly

higher south and southwest of the Cabo Verde Islands.



For convection, some scattered showers and embedded thunderstorms

are possible ahead of the front off the SE U.S., north of 30N and

west of 70W to the front. With the central waters trough, 

scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms are within 300 nm 

southeast, east, and northeast of the axis.



For the forecast west of 55W, the marine conditions associated

with the surface trough in the eastern SW N Atlantic zones will 

gradually shift westward through the early part of the week as the

trough drifts westward. A stationary front along the southeastern

U.S. coast will gradually lift back northwest as warm front 

through the middle of the week, then may slowly push offshore 

again at the end of the week. Expect scattered to numerous showers

and thunderstorms over the western waters into the early part of 

the week. 



$$

Lewitsky