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AXNT20 KNHC 051735

TWDAT 



Tropical Weather Discussion

NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL

1815 UTC Mon May 5 2025



Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America

Gulf of America, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South

America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the

Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite

imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.



Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 

1600 UTC.



...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... 



The monsoon trough axis enters the Atlantic near the coast of

Guinea-Bissau at 12N16W and extends south-southwestward to 05N21W.

The ITCZ continues from 05N21W to the coast of Brazil at 01N50W. 

Scattered moderate and isolated strong convection is occurring 

from 01N-06N between 10W-18W. Scattered moderate convection is 

ongoing from 04N-08N between 25W-45W. 



...GULF OF AMERICA...



As of 1500 UTC, a stationary front extends from central Florida 

westward to 27N94W, where it becomes a warm front to the S Texas 

coast. Widely scattered moderate convection is occurring within 60

NM of the front. Winds north of the stationary front west of 95W

are fresh ESE. Elsewhere, winds are gentle or moderate across the

Gulf. Seas are 1-2 ft in the E Gulf and 2-4 ft in the W Gulf.



For the forecast, the stationary front from near Tampa Bay, 

Florida to S Texas will gradually wash out. Gentle to moderate 

winds dominating the western basin will strengthen tonight through

Wed morning. Winds will pulse to moderate to fresh in the Straits

of Florida through mid- week. A weak front may reach the NW Gulf 

mid- week. Smoke from agricultural fires in southeastern Mexico is

creating hazy conditions in some sections of the western Gulf, 

with the lowest reported visibility near the SW Gulf coast.



...CARIBBEAN SEA... 



With a weak pressure gradient between the Bermuda-Azores High

north of the Caribbean and a 1009 mb Colombian Low, trades are

only gentle to moderate across the Caribbean this morning. Seas

are 1-4 ft across the forecast waters. There is widely scattered 

moderate convection south of 12N between 75W-80W in association 

with the E end of the Pacific monsoon trough. 



For the forecast, moderate to fresh east to southeast winds will 

pulse north of Honduras, increasing to fresh to strong speeds 

nightly starting Tue night. Winds will pulse to fresh nightly near

the Windward Passage. Gentle to moderate trades and slight to 

moderate seas are expected over the remainder of the basin through

the period, including in the Tropical N Atlantic. 



...ATLANTIC OCEAN...



A surface trough extends from 21N59W to 25N63W, supported by a

collocated upper level trough. Winds north of 23N between 50W-62W

are E to SE fresh to strong with seas 6-9 ft. Scattered moderate 

convection is occurring from 20N-30N between 50W-60W. A stationary

front is located from the NE Florida coast north-northeastward to

31N80W with scattered moderate convection north of 29N between 

76W-79W. Except as noted above, winds across the forecast waters 

are gentle to moderate with seas 4-7 ft in mixed wind waves and N

swell.



For the forecast west of 55W, the fresh to locally strong 

northeast winds and moderate to rough seas will gradually shift 

westward through the early part of the week as the trough drifts 

westward. A stationary front along the southeastern U.S. coast 

will gradually lift back northwest as warm front through the 

middle of the week, then may slowly push offshore again at the end

of the week. Expect scattered to numerous showers and 

thunderstorms over the western waters in the early part of the 

week.



$$ 

Landsea