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AXPZ20 KNHC 052202

TWDEP 



Tropical Weather Discussion

NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL

2205 UTC Mon May 5 2025



Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from

03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and

from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following

information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations,

radar, and meteorological analysis.



Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through

2120 UTC.



...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...



The monsoon trough extends from 11N75W to 11N901W to 08.5N112W. 

The ITCZ extends from 08.5N112W to beyond 06.5N140W. Scattered to

locally numerous moderate to strong convection is noted from 03N

to 09.5N east of 91W. Scattered moderate to strong convection is

noted from 07N to 12.5N between 94W and 114W, and from 04N to 

10N between 119W and 140W.



...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...



A surface trough, remnants of a cold front, extends across the

southern Gulf of California from interior portions of northern

Sinaloa to a 1010 mb low center located southeast of Cabo San 

Lucas near 23N108.5W. A second surface trough is across the

northern Gulf. 1030 mb high pressure continues well NW of the 

area behind the dissipated front. Afternoon satellite 

scatterometer data showed westerly gaps winds continuing across the

entire Gulf of California, with moderate to fresh winds in each 

of the gap areas. Seas are 3 to 5 ft across the Gulf waters. 

Strong NW winds are along the coast off of Cabo San 

Lucas west of the surface low there, raising localized seas to 8

ft. Across the Baja offshore waters moderate to fresh NW winds 

and rough seas 8 to 13 ft prevail across the waters north of 

Cabo San Lazaro, and seas of 5 to 7 ft elsewhere across the Baja

and Mexican offshore waters. 



For the forecast, the surface trough will continue to move SE 

across the southern Gulf of California and dissipate tonight. 

Westerly gap winds will end tonight. Fresh to strong winds and 

seas to 8 ft will continue off Cabo San Lucas through tonight. 

Large NW swell will reach the waters near the Revillagigedo 

Islands on Tue, and then subside across the Baja waters Wed 

evening. Light to gentle breezes, except moderate to fresh NW 

winds off Cabo Corrientes, will persist elsewhere off southern 

Mexico through Fri night. 



...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, 

AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...



Weather remains unsettled across the waters east of 91W as 

showers and thunderstorms associated with the monsoon trough 

also impact the coastal waters from Guatemala to Panama and 

Colombia. This shower activity is supported by the inflow of 

moderate to locally fresh SW to W winds across these offshore 

waters. A weak pressure gradient elsewhere is resulting in light 

to gentle winds. Seas of 5 to 7 ft primarily in SW swell are 

ongoing across the offshore waters between the Galapagos and the

Central American offshore waters.



For the forecast, gentle to locally moderate breezes will 

persist across the waters off Central America, Colombia and 

Ecuador, with primarily moderate SW swell through the middle of 

the week. Moderate SW swell is expected to move into the regional waters

Tue night through Thu. 



...REMAINDER OF THE AREA....



A 1030 mb high center is located north of the area near 34N140W,

and extends a ridge south and southeastward across the regional

waters W of 110W. Strong to gale-force northerly winds offshore

of California become fresh south of 30N between 120W and 130W, 

to the north of 27N. Seas across these waters are 9 to 13 ft in 

northerly swell. Elsewhere south of the ridge fresh N to NE 

winds prevail west of 120W, southward to the ITCZ along 07N-08N. 

Seas there are 6 to 9 ft in mixed swell. Moderate or weaker winds

and moderate seas are noted elsewhere. 



For the forecast, strong high pressure north of the area will

persist today, then begin to drift SE and weaken through Wed,

ahead of an approaching cold front. This will maintain fresh to 

locally strong N to NE winds and building seas through Tue, with 

the strongest winds and highest seas occurring east of 130W. 

Winds and seas will diminish Tue night into Wed as the high

pressure weakens. A cold front will reach near 30N140W early Thu,

stall then weaken, with moderate high pressure N of the area

promoting moderate to fresh trade winds across the waters S of

20N and W of 120W into the upcoming weekend.



$$

Stripling