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AXPZ20 KNHC 060358

TWDEP 



Tropical Weather Discussion

NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL

0405 UTC Tue May 06 2025



Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from

03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and

from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following

information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations,

radar, and meteorological analysis.



Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through

0345 UTC.



...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...



The monsoon trough extends from northwest Colombia to 08N82W to

11N97W to 10N110W to 07N120W to 07N130W to 06N140W. Scattered 

moderate to strong convection is seen from 06N to 10N between 

85W and 89W. Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is 

within 60 nm north of the trough between between 111W-114W and 

between 121W-124W. Scattered moderate convection is within 60 nm 

south of the trough between 101W-106W.



...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...



A 1009 mb low center is evident in the latest satellite

scatterometer data to be at located southeast of Cabo San Lucas 

near 24N108W. A surface trough stretches from southern Baja 

California just west of Cabo San Lucas northwestward to northern

Baja California and northeastward from there to the 

California/Arizona border. High pressure of 1028 mb continues 

well NW of the area. Westerly gaps winds continuing across the 

entire Gulf of California, with moderate to fresh winds in each 

of the gap areas. Seas are 3 to 5 ft across the Gulf waters. 

Strong NW winds are along the coast off of Cabo San Lucas west of

the surface low there as seen in the scatterometer data. These 

winds are accompanied by seas to 8 ft. Across the Baja offshore 

waters moderate to fresh NW winds and rough seas 8 to 12 ft 

prevail across the waters north of Cabo San Lazaro, and seas of 5

to 7 ft elsewhere across the Baja and Mexican offshore waters. 



For the forecast, fresh to strong winds and seas to 8 ft will 

continue off Cabo San Lucas through tonight. Large NW swell will 

reach the waters near the Revillagigedo Islands on Tue, and then 

subside across the Baja waters Wed evening. Light to gentle 

breezes, except moderate to fresh NW winds off Cabo Corrientes, 

will persist elsewhere off southern Mexico through Fri night. 



...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, 

AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...



The weather remains unsettled across the waters east of 91W as 

showers and thunderstorms associated with the monsoon trough also

impact the coastal waters from Guatemala to Panama and Colombia.

This shower activity is supported by the inflow of moderate to 

locally fresh SW to W winds across these offshore waters. A weak 

pressure gradient elsewhere is resulting in light to gentle 

winds. Seas of 5 to 7 ft primarily in SW swell are ongoing across

the offshore waters between the Galapagos and the Central 

American offshore waters.



For the forecast, gentle to locally moderate breezes will 

persist across the waters off Central America, Colombia and 

Ecuador, with primarily moderate SW swell through the middle of 

the week. Moderate SW swell is expected to move into the regional waters

Tue night through Thu. 



...REMAINDER OF THE AREA....



High pressure of 1028 mb is located well north of the area near 

34N140W. Associated ridging extends a ridge south and 

southeastward across the regional waters W of 110W. Latest

satellite scatterometer data shows fresh north winds south of 

30N between 124W and 134W to the north of 27N. Seas across these

waters are 8 to 12 ft in northerly swell. Elsewhere south of the

ridge, fresh N to NE winds prevail west of 120W, southward to 

the ITCZ along 07N-08N. Seas there are 6 to 9 ft in mixed swell. 

Moderate or weaker winds and moderate seas are noted elsewhere. 



For the forecast, the 1028 mb high north of the area will

begin to drift southeastward and weaken through Wed, ahead

of an approaching cold front. This will maintain fresh to 

locally strong N to NE winds and building seas through Tue, with 

the strongest winds and highest seas occurring east of 130W. 

Winds and seas will diminish Tue night into Wed as the high 

pressure weakens. A cold front will reach near 30N140W early

Thu, stall then weaken, with moderate high pressure N of the 

area promoting moderate to fresh trade winds across the waters

S of 20N and W of 120W into the upcoming weekend.



$$

Aguirre