####018004799####
AXNT20 KNHC 060532

TWDAT 



Tropical Weather Discussion

NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL

0615 UTC Tue May 6 2025



Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America

Gulf of America, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South

America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the

Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite

imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.



Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 

0520 UTC.



...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... 



The monsoon trough axis enters the Atlantic near 11N16W and 

extends south-southwestward to 05N27W. The ITCZ continues from 

05N27W to the coast of Brazil at 04N51W. Numerous strong

convection is ongoing off W Africa from 04N to 10N between 08W and

16W, and from 02N to 07N between 18W and 24W. Scattered moderate

convection is elsewhere from 02N to 10N between 25W and 45W. 



...GULF OF AMERICA...



A weakening stationary front extends from Longboat Key, Florida to

27N89W, where it becomes a solid stationary front that continues to

Freeport, Texas. Scattered heavy showers and isolated tstms are 

occurring between the solid stationary front and the coasts of

Louisiana, Mississippi and Alabama. Winds west of 88W are fresh to

locally strong from the ESE, while gentle or moderate winds are

ongoing elsewhere across the Gulf. Seas are 1-4 ft in the E Gulf 

and 4-6 ft in the W Gulf.



For the forecast, the weak boundary across the northern zones 

will wash out tonight. High pressure over the SE United States 

will support moderate to fresh return flow, pulsing to strong at 

times, over the western zones, and mainly gentle to moderate winds

over the eastern zones through mid-week. Winds will weaken across

the basin Thu as the next front approaches. That front may reach 

across the western zones Thu night, stretching from the western 

Florida Panhandle to Veracruz, Mexico by early Fri, then slowing 

from the central Florida Panhandle to the eastern Bay of Campeche 

by early Sat. Smoke from agricultural fires in southeastern Mexico

is creating hazy conditions in some sections of the western Gulf,

with the lowest reported visibility near the SW Gulf coast.



...CARIBBEAN SEA... 



A weak pressure gradient prevails between the Bermuda-Azores High

north of the Caribbean and lower pressures across Central America

and Colombia. This continues to support gentle to moderate trade

winds across most of the Caribbean, except for localized fresh 

winds across the Gulf of Honduras. Seas are 2-4 ft across the 

basin. Widely scattered showers are seen across E Cuba, Hispaniola

and Puerto Rico adjacent waters as well as offshore NW Colombia. 



For the forecast, moderate to fresh east to southeast winds will 

pulse north of Honduras, increasing to fresh to strong speeds 

nightly starting Tue night through Fri night. Unsettled weather is

expected to continue over the eastern Caribbean well into the 

week. Winds will pulse to fresh nightly near the Windward Passage.

Gentle to moderate trades and slight to moderate seas are 

expected over the remainder of the basin through Sat, including in

the Tropical N Atlantic. Winds will strengthen off Colombia Fri 

night through the upcoming weekend as the pressure gradient 

tightens. 



...ATLANTIC OCEAN...



The pressure gradient between a trough that extends from 27N63W 

to 19N59W over the central Atlantic is supporting fresh to locally

strong northeast winds and moderate to rough seas northeast of 

the trough axis. Scattered showers and isolated tstms associated

with this troughs cover the area N of 23N between 52W and 62W.

Farther west, a dissipating stationary front extending from 30N79W

to Cape Canaveral, Florida is supporting similar shower activity

across the offshore waters just N of Freeport. Otherwise, a cold

front extends from 30N24W to the central Atlantic near 24N40W

where it then transitions to a stationary front that continues to

26N48W to 28N55W. Except for the winds and rough seas to 10 ft

associated with the surface trough, winds are moderate or weaker

elsewhere, and seas are moderate.  



For the forecast west of 55W, fresh to locally strong northeast 

winds and moderate to rough seas associated with the trough axis 

will gradually shift westward through mid-week as the trough 

drifts westward. Winds and seas will start to decrease mid-week 

as the trough weakens. A stationary front along and just offshore 

the southeastern U.S. coast will gradually lift back northwest as 

warm front through mid-week, then may slowly push offshore again 

at the end of the week. 



$$

Ramos