####018004935####
AXNT20 KNHC 060823

TWDAT 



Tropical Weather Discussion

NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL

1215 UTC Tue May 6 2025



Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America

Gulf of America, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South

America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the

Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite

imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.



Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 

0800 UTC.



...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... 



The monsoon trough axis enters the Atlantic near the coast of

Guinea at 10N14W to 05N23W. The ITCZ extends from 05N23W to the 

coast of French Guiana near 04.5N52.5W. Widely scattered to

numerous moderate convection is noted from 01N to 09N between 18W

and 29W, and from 05N to 13N between 29W and 45W. Scattered

moderate to strong convection is present from 02N to 10.5N between

08N and 17.5W.



...GULF OF AMERICA...



A weakening stationary front extends from just north of Tampa Bay,

Florida to 27N86W to just south of Galveston Bay, Texas. The

Pressure gradient is tightening over the basin with fresh to

strong E to SE winds over the SW half of the waters, and gentle to

moderate E to SE winds over the NE half. Seas are 3 to 6 ft over

the SW half, and 3 ft or less elsewhere. Scattered showers and

embedded thunderstorms are possible over the north-central Gulf

north of 27N between 87W and 92W near the boundary.



For the forecast, a weak boundary across the northern zones will 

wash out today. High pressure over the SE United States will 

support fresh to locally strong flow over the SW half of the 

basin, and gentle to moderate flow elsewhere. Winds will weaken 

across the basin Thu as the next front approaches. That front may 

reach across the western zones Thu night, stretching from the 

western Florida Panhandle to Veracruz, Mexico by early Fri, then 

slowing from the central Florida Panhandle to the eastern Bay of 

Campeche by early Sat. Smoke from agricultural fires in 

southeastern Mexico is creating hazy conditions in some sections 

of the western Gulf, with the lowest reported visibility near the 

SW Gulf coast. 



...CARIBBEAN SEA... 



A weak pressure gradient prevails between the Bermuda-Azores High

north of the Caribbean and lower pressures across Central America

and Colombia. This continues to support gentle to moderate trade

winds across most of the Caribbean, except for localized fresh 

winds near the Gulf of Honduras and near the Windward Passage. 

Seas are 2 to 4 ft across the basin, except 1 to 3 ft in the lee

of Cuba. Widely scattered showers are seen across far eastern 

Cuba, Hispaniola, and Puerto Rico adjacent waters, as well as 

offshore NW Colombia, and just southeast of Jamaica. 



For the forecast, moderate to fresh east to southeast winds will 

pulse north of Honduras, increasing to fresh to strong speeds 

nightly starting tonight through Fri night. Unsettled weather is 

expected to continue over the eastern Caribbean well into the 

week. Winds will pulse to fresh nightly near the Windward Passage.

Gentle to moderate trades and slight to moderate seas are 

expected over the remainder of the basin through Sat, including in

the Tropical N Atlantic. Winds will strengthen off Colombia Fri 

night through the upcoming weekend as the pressure gradient 

tightens. 



...ATLANTIC OCEAN...



The pressure gradient between a trough that extends from 28N62W 

to 20N59W over the central Atlantic is supporting fresh to locally

strong northeast winds and moderate to rough seas north and 

northeast of the trough axis. Scattered showers and isolated 

tstms associated with this trough covers the area N of 23N 

between 50W and 64W. Farther west, a lingering stationary front 

is along and just offshore of the coast of the SE United States. 

This boundary is supporting similar shower activity across the 

offshore waters north of 28N and between 74W and the boundary. 

Otherwise, a cold front extends from 31N23W to the central 

Atlantic near 24N46W where it transitions to a stationary front 

which continues to 28.5N55.5W. Except for the winds and rough seas

to 10 ft associated with the surface trough, winds are moderate 

or weaker elsewhere, and seas are moderate. 



For the forecast west of 55W, the marine conditions associated

with the central Atlantic surface trough will gradually shift 

westward through mid- week as the trough drifts westward. Winds 

and seas will start to decrease mid-week as the trough weakens. A

stationary front along and just offshore the southeastern U.S. 

coast will gradually lift back northwest as warm front through 

mid-week, then may slowly push offshore again at the end of the 

week. 





$$

Lewitsky