####018005032####
AXPZ20 KNHC 061534

TWDEP 



Tropical Weather Discussion

NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL

1605 UTC Tue May 6 2025



Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from

03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and

from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following

information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations,

radar, and meteorological analysis.



Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through

1440 UTC.



...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...



The monsoon trough extends from 11N75W to 12.5N96W to 11N97W to 

06N128W. The ITCZ extends from 06N128W to beyond 06N140W. 

Scattered moderate to strong convection is seen from 03N to 12.5N

east of 100W, from 06.5N to 12N between 101W and 116W, and from

04.5N to 10.5N between 121W-140W.



...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...



Weakening high pressure remains well to the NW of the Baja

California waters, and extends a broad ridge southeastward to

south of the Revillagigedo Islands. A broad surface trough is 

across the offshore waters of southern California, Baja Norte,

and the northern Gulf of California. A second lingering trough 

is across the southern Gulf of California, extending from central

Sinaloa to the entrance to the Gulf, halfway between Cabo San 

Lucas and Las Tres Marias. Overnight satellite scatterometer data

showed fresh to strong NW to W winds wrapping around the 

southern tip of the Baja Peninsula, and are assumed to still be 

occurring there. Moderate to fresh NW winds continue from there 

southeastward across the near and offshore waters of Cabo 

Corrientes to central Michoacan. Seas across this area are 7 to 8

ft in NW swell. Elsewhere across the Baja offshore waters, light

to gentle NW winds prevail. Seas are 7 to 10 ft in NW swell. 

Across the Gulf of California, westerly gap winds have ended 

overnight, and moderate S to SW are now across the northern Gulf,

while gentle to moderate W-NW gap winds across central portions 

veer anticyclonically across the rest of the Gulf, becoming 

gentle to moderate from the N across southern portions. Seas in 

the Gulf are 3 ft or less except 4 to 5 ft across the entrance. 

Elsewhere across the remaining Mexican waters to Tehuantepec, 

winds are light to gentle, with seas of 5 to 7 ft in SW swell.



For the forecast, high pressure well to the NW of the area will 

slowly weaken through Wed. Fresh NW winds off Cabo San Lucas will

diminish this afternoon. NW swell moving through the Baja waters

has reached the Revillagigedo Islands and peaked across the area

waters on this morning, and subside Wed. Light to gentle 

breezes, except moderate to fresh NW winds off Cabo Corrientes, 

will persist elsewhere off southern Mexico through Fri night. 



...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, 

AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...



The weather remains unsettled across the waters east of about

100W as monsoonal SW to W low level winds are now dominating the

far eastern Tropical Pacific. Light and variable winds generally

prevail north of the monsoon trough, along about 10N, while

gentle to moderate SW to W winds prevail across most of the

waters south of the trough and in to the coasts. Seas of 4 to 7 

ft primarily in SW swell are over the Central American offshore 

waters, except for higher seas of 6 to 8 ft in new S to SW swell

offshore of the Galapagos Islands.



For the forecast, gentle to locally moderate breezes will 

persist across the waters off Central America, Colombia and 

Ecuador, with primarily moderate SW swell through Wed. New SW 

swell is expected to enter the waters north of the Equator and

build across the area waters tonight through Thu.



...REMAINDER OF THE AREA....



High pressure just north of the area has collapsed this morning,

ahead of an approaching cold front. A broad ridge still persists

across the regional waters W of 110W. Overnight satellite 

scatterometer data showed moderate to fresh N to NE winds

occurring west of 125W and north of 10N. Seas there are 7 to 11  

ft in N to NE swell, except around 6 ft across far NW portions. 

Moderate or lighter winds and moderate seas are noted elsewhere. 



For the forecast, the high pressure will drift southeastward and

weaken through Wed, ahead of an approaching cold front. This 

will maintain fresh to locally strong N to NE winds and building 

seas today, with the strongest winds and highest seas occurring 

east of 130W. Winds and seas will diminish tonight into Wed as 

the high pressure weakens further. A cold front will reach near 

30N140W early Thu, stall then weaken, with moderate high pressure

N of the area promoting moderate to fresh trades across the 

waters S of 20N and W of 120W into the upcoming weekend. Seas 

with these trades are expected to be 5 to 7 ft.



$$

Stripling