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AXNT20 KNHC 062349

TWDAT 



Tropical Weather Discussion

NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL

0015 UTC Wed May 7 2025



Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America

Gulf of America, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South

America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the

Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite

imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.



Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 

2200 UTC.



...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... 



The monsoon trough axis enters the Atlantic near the coast of

Guinea-Bissau near 11.5N15.54W and extends southwestward to 

04.5N25W. The ITCZ continues from 04.5N25W to near near the coast

of Brazil at 00N48W. Scattered moderate to strong convection is 

noted from 00N to 09.5N between 08W and 30W.



...GULF OF AMERICA...



A stationary front extends from the Florida Big Bend to coastal

portions of southeast Louisiana, then become a warm front passing

across the New Orleans area. The pressure gradient between a

western Atlantic ridge extending across Florida and into the Gulf

and low pressure over northern Mexico and eastern Texas is 

supporting fresh to strong return flow across the basin west of 

90W, and gentle to moderate E to SE winds elsewhere. Seas are 6 to

9 ft across much of the area west of 91W, 3 to 6 ft elsewhere 

west of 86W, and 3 ft or less elsewhere. Skies are generally fair

to partly cloudy across the entire basin this afternoon. Convection

occurring earlier today across the NE Gulf has ended, with the 

return flow across the western gulf now feeding into a large 

cluster of strong to severe thunderstorms occurring across eastern

Texas and most of south and central Louisiana. 



For the forecast, the weak frontal boundary across the NE Gulf  

will wash out tonight. The pressure gradient between high 

pressure over the western Atlantic and low pressure over Mexico 

and Texas will support fresh to locally strong winds over the W 

half of the basin through early Wed. Gentle to moderate winds 

will prevail elsewhere. Winds will weaken across the basin Thu as 

the next front approaches. That front will reach across the 

western zones Thu night, from the western Florida Panhandle to 

Veracruz, Mexico by early Fri, from the central Florida Panhandle 

to the eastern Bay of Campeche by early Sat, then from the Florida

Big Bend to the Yucatan Peninsula early Sun. Smoke from 

agricultural fires in southeastern Mexico is creating hazy 

conditions in some sections of the western Gulf, with the lowest 

reported visibility near the SW Gulf coast.



...CARIBBEAN SEA... 



A weak pressure gradient prevails between the Bermuda-Azores High

north of the Caribbean and lower pressures across Central America

and Colombia due to a persistent broad trough across the Atlantic

between 58W and 70W. This pattern continues to support gentle to 

moderate trade winds across most of the Caribbean, except for 

localized fresh winds near the Gulf of Honduras, through the 

Windward Passage and offshore of Colombia. Seas are 2 to 4 ft 

across the most of the basin, except 1 to 3 ft in the lee of 

Cuba, and to around 5 ft offshore of Colombia. Scattered showers 

and a few thunderstorms are seen across the waters N of 16N and E

of 70W, becoming more numerous across Hispaniola, Puerto Rico 

 and the Leeward Islands. Scattered moderate thunderstorms are

occurring across the SW Caribbean between 11N and 13.5N.



For the forecast, the broad Atlantic trough north of Puerto Rico

will move slowly NW and weaken through Fri, and finally allow

Atlantic high pressure to build into the Caribbean over the

upcoming weekend. Winds will +start to increase off Colombia Fri 

night through the upcoming weekend as the pressure gradient 

tightens. Moderate to fresh east to southeast winds will pulse 

north of Honduras, increasing to fresh to strong speeds nightly 

tonight through Fri night. Unsettled weather is expected to 

continue over the eastern Caribbean through midweek. Gentle to 

moderate trades and slight to moderate seas are expected over the 

remainder of the basin through Sat, including in the Tropical N 

Atlantic, before increasing slightly this weekend. 



...ATLANTIC OCEAN...



Deep-layered low pressure across the Atlantic north of Puerto Rico

has formed a 1015 mb surface low near 26.5N64W, with a broad

surface trough extending southward to 23N. The pressure gradient 

between the 1015 mb low and high pressure centered over the 

central Atlantic is supporting fresh to locally strong easterly 

winds and moderate to rough seas to beyond 31N and north to northeast

of the low to 50W. Peak seas area around 10 ft within 180 nm north

of the low. Scattered showers and thunderstorms associated with 

this low covers the area N of 22N between 53W and 65W. Farther 

west, a stationary front is along and just offshore of the coast 

of the SE United States. This boundary is supporting shower and

thunderstorm activity across the offshore waters north of 31N and

between 75W and the boundary. Gentle to moderate anticyclonic

winds dominate the waters west of 65W through the Bahamas and into

Florida, where afternoon convection is occurring across interior

portions from Orlando southward. Seas across these waters are 2 to

4 ft except to 5 ft across the southern Bahamas. Elsewhere to the

east, a cold front extends from 31N20W to the central Atlantic 

near 23N45W. The cold front wraps cyclonically into broad 1010 mb

low pressure near 35N25W. Except for the winds and rough seas to 

10 ft north of the area associated with the low pressure, winds

across the eastern Atlantic waters are moderate to locally fresh,

with moderate seas 4 to 7 ft.



For the forecast west of 55W, the pressure gradient between the 

1015 mb low centered near 26.5N64W and high pressure centered 

over the central Atlantic is supporting fresh to locally strong 

northeast winds and moderate to rough seas north and northeast of 

the low. These conditions will gradually shift westward through 

mid-week as the low and trough drift westward and weaken. A 

stationary front along and just offshore the southeastern U.S. 

coast will gradually lift back northwest as warm front through 

mid-week, then may slowly push offshore again at the end of the 

week. High pressure over the central Atlantic will begin to build

into the regional waters from the northeast over the upcoming

weekend.



$$

Stripling