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AXNT20 KNHC 070817

TWDAT 



Tropical Weather Discussion

NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL

1215 UTC Wed May 7 2025



Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America

Gulf of America, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South

America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the

Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite

imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.



Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 

0800 UTC.



...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... 



The monsoon trough axis enters the Atlantic at the coast of Guinea

near 10N14W and extends southwestward to 06.5N24W. The ITCZ 

continues from 06N24.5W to 07N35W to the coast of French Guiana 

at 05N53W. Scattered moderate convection is ongoing from 01S to

03N between 03W and 12.5W, from 00N to 04N between 15W and 22W,

from 00N to 05N between 26W and 32W, and from 05N to 08N between

38W and 52W.



...GULF OF AMERICA...



A weak surface ridge extends across the southeastern United States

from the Atlantic while a broad area of low pressure over east-

central Mexico covers the western half of the basin. The resultant

pressure gradient between these two features is supporting fresh 

to locally strong SE winds W of 87W and gentle to moderate SE 

winds elsewhere. In the northern Gulf, a stationary front 

extending from SE Georgia to southern Louisiana to southern Texas 

is generating scattered heavy showers and tstms mainly over the 

coastal waters from the Florida Panhandle to near Corpus Christi,

Texas. Seas are 5 to 8 ft W of 87W and 2 to 5 ft E of 87W, except

3 ft or less over the eastern Gulf coastal waters.



For the forecast, the pressure gradient between high pressure 

over the SE United States and low pressure over Mexico will 

support fresh to locally strong winds over the W half of the 

basin. Gentle to moderate winds will prevail elsewhere. Winds will

weaken across the basin Thu as the next front approaches, 

currently stalled just inland over SE Texas. The front will reach 

across the western zones Thu night, from SE Louisiana to Veracruz,

Mexico by early Fri, from the western Florida Panhandle to the 

eastern Bay of Campeche by early Sat, then from the Florida Big 

Bend to the Yucatan Peninsula early Sun. Smoke from agricultural 

fires in southeastern Mexico is creating hazy conditions in some 

sections of the western Gulf, with the lowest reported visibility 

near the SW Gulf coast. 



...CARIBBEAN SEA... 



A broad area of low pressure SSE of Bermuda is allowing the

continuation of a weak pressure gradient across the Caribbean,

which is resulting in gentle to moderate trade winds across most 

of the Caribbean, except for localized fresh winds near the Gulf 

of Honduras, through the Windward Passage, and the lee side of 

Cuba. Seas are 2 to 4 ft across the most of the basin, except 4 

to 6 ft in the Gulf of Honduras and the Windward Passage. 

Otherwise, isolated showers are occurring over the NE Caribbean 

due to the proximity of a surface trough from the east, and in the

SW Caribbean near and along the eastern Pacific monsoon trough.



For the forecast, moderate to fresh east to southeast winds will 

pulse north of Honduras, fresh to strong speeds nightly through 

Fri night. Unsettled weather is expected to continue over the 

eastern Caribbean through mid-week. Winds will pulse to fresh 

nightly near the Windward Passage. Gentle to moderate trades and 

slight to moderate seas are expected over the remainder of the 

basin through Fri, including in the Tropical N Atlantic, before 

increasing slightly this weekend. Winds will start to increase to 

fresh in the central Caribbean and off Colombia Fri night, then to

fresh to strong Sat through the remainder of the upcoming weekend

as the pressure gradient tightens. 



...ATLANTIC OCEAN...



The pressure gradient between a low centered near 28N64W with 

associated trough and high pressure centered over the central 

Atlantic is supporting fresh to locally strong northeast winds and

moderate to rough seas north and northeast of the low. Scattered

heavy showers and tstms are also associated with the low and 

affecting mainly the waters north of 25N between 58W and 66W.

Another surface trough east of the Leeward Islands is supporting 

similar shower activity from 15N to 23N between 50W and 61W. 

Otherwise, a broad surface ridge covers the remainder central and 

eastern subtropical waters with a pair of remnant frontal troughs 

north of 27N between 20W and 48W. Aside from the area of low 

pressure SSE of Bermuda mentioned above, winds are moderate or 

weaker elsewhere, except locally fresh near the frontal troughs 

and near the Windward Passage, with moderate seas.



For the forecast west of 55W, the marine conditions associated

with the central Atlantic low will gradually shift westward 

through mid-week as the low and trough drift westward. Winds and 

seas will start to decrease tonight as the low and trough start to

weaken. A stationary front along and just offshore the 

southeastern U.S. coast will gradually lift back northwest as warm

front through mid-week, then may slowly push offshore again at 

the end of the week and into the upcoming weekend. 



$$

Lewitsky