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AXPZ20 KNHC 071544

TWDEP 



Tropical Weather Discussion

NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL

1605 UTC Wed May 7 2025



Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from

03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and

from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following

information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations,

radar, and meteorological analysis.



Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through

1500 UTC.



...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...



The monsoon trough extends from 10.5N75.5W to 11.5N87W to 

09N114W to 09N110W to 08N120W to 05.5N131W, where it transitions

to the ITCZ continuing on to 04N140W. Scattered moderate 

isolated strong convection is seen from 03N to 08.5N east of 94W.

Scattered to locally numerous moderate to strong convection is 

noted from 05.5N to 11N between 98W and 124W. 



...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...



Weak high pressure of 1018 mb has formed within the broad ridge

across the region, centered near 26N121W. The ridge remains

southeastward to south of the Revillagigedo Islands near 

16N106W. A broad surface trough is across southern California, 

Baja Norte, and the northern Gulf of California. Overnight 

satellite scatterometer data showed moderate to locally fresh NW

winds along and just offshore the Baja Peninsula waters from

Punta Eugenia southward beyond Cabo San Lucas to Cabo Corrientes

to near Manzanillo. Strongest winds remain near the coast of Cabo

San Lucas. Seas across these waters are 5 to 7 ft in subsiding NW

swell. Farther offshore of Cabo Corrientes to beyond the

Revillagigedo Islands, seas are around 8 ft. Elsewhere across 

the Baja offshore waters, light to gentle NW to N winds prevail.

Across the Gulf of California, gentle to moderate S winds are 

over the northern Gulf, while light and variable wind are over 

the central part of the Gulf and gentle to moderate NW to N 

winds are over the southern section. Seas in the Gulf are 3 ft or

less except for higher seas of 3 to 5 ft in S swell are in the 

far southern part and in the entrance. Emaylsewhere across the 

remaining Mexican waters to Tehuantepec, winds are light to 

gentle along with seas of 5 to 6 ft in merging NW and SW swell.



For the forecast, a broad and weak ridge extending southeastward

to offshore of southwestern Mexico will change little through 

Thu before new high pressure offshore of California builds 

modestly across the Baja California waters Fri through the 

upcoming weekend. NW swell moving through the offshore waters 

will continue to subside through this evening. Looking ahead, a 

late season northerly gale event is expected across Tehuantepec 

Sat night and Sun night. Strong gap N gap winds are expected to 

begin across Tehuantepec Sat morning. 



...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, 

AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...



Monsoonal winds continue to initiate scattered showers and

thunderstorms across the area waters south of 09N and east of 94W

this morning, but have diminished in areal coverage and intensity

in the past several hours. Light and variable winds generally 

prevail north of the monsoon trough near 11N. Gentle to moderate E

to SE are currently occurring across the Papagayo region. Gentle

to moderate SW to W winds prevail across most of the waters 

south of the trough. Seas of 4 to 6 ft in SW swell are over the 

Central American offshore waters, except for higher seas of 7 to

8 ft in S to SW swell south of and near the Galapagos Islands.



For the forecast, gentle to locally moderate breezes will 

persist across the waters off Central America, Colombia and 

Ecuador, through Thu night. Moderate SW swell is entering the 

regional waters today and will build across the area waters 

through Thu. Fresh to strong easterly gap winds will return to 

the Papagayo region over the weekend. 



...REMAINDER OF THE AREA....



A broad high pressure ridge continues over the regional waters W

of 106W, while a weak 1018 mb high center has formed near 26N121W.

Moderate to fresh N to NE winds prevail west of about 130W and 

north of 08N, and are gentle to moderate between 110W and 130W.

Moderate to fresh NE trade winds continue between the ITCZ and

18N, to the W of 110W. NW to N swell continues to dominate the 

waters N of 22N and E of 134W, where seas are 8 to 10 ft as 

indicated by overnight altimeter satellite data. Seas are 5 to 8 

ft W of 134W while seas in the trade wind zone from 09N to 18N 

are 6 to 8 ft. Moderate or lighter winds and moderate seas are 

noted elsewhere south of the ITCZ.



For the forecast, the weakening high pressure ridge across the

region W of 110W will generally persist through Thu. A weak cold

front will approach 30N140W late Fri night or early Sat. High 

pressure building behind it will overtake the weakening front 

through Sun night. A tightening gradient will act to expand the 

areal coverage of the fresh trade winds northward to near 26N by 

Sun evening. Seas with these trades are expected to be in the 6 

to 8 ft range.



$$

Stripling