####018007873#### AXNT20 KNHC 162317 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 0015 UTC Thu Jul 17 2025 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of America, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 2310 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Northeastern and north-central Gulf (AL93): Surface and radar observations indicate that a westward-moving broad area of low pressure is located along the coast of the Florida Panhandle near Panama City. The associated shower and thunderstorm activity remains disorganized and located mainly south and southwest of the center. This system is forecast to continue moving westward across the northern portion of the Gulf through tonight, reaching the coast of Louisiana by Thursday. If this system moves far enough offshore, environmental conditions over the Gulf appear generally favorable for additional development, and a tropical depression could form over the next day or two before the system moves fully inland by the end of the week. Regardless of development, heavy rainfall could produce localized flash flooding over portions of Florida through through today. Heavy rainfall could also cause flash flooding for portions of the north-central Gulf Coast beginning late today and continuing through Friday. For additional information, please refer to products issued by the Weather Prediction Center and your local National Weather Service office. This system has a medium chance of tropical cyclone development during the next 48 hours and also during the next 7 days. Please refer to the latest NHC Tropical Weather Outlook at www.hurricanes.gov for more details. ...TROPICAL WAVES... A far eastern Atlantic tropical wave extends from 08N to 20N with axis near 22W, moving westward at around 5 kt. Scattered moderate convection is observed from 08N to 13N between 19W and 30W. A tropical wave is in the E Caribbean Sea with axis near 62W, south of 20N, moving west at 10 kt. There is no significant convection associated with this wave. A tropical wave in in the central Caribbean Sea with axis near 74W, south of 20N. There is no significant convection associated with this wave. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic near 14N17W and continues southwestward to 10N30W to 07N43W. The ITCZ extends from 07N43W to 08N55W. Scattered moderate convection is found from 07N to 11N between 48W and 61W. ...GULF OF AMERICA... Please see the Special Features section for more information on Invest AL93 over the NE Gulf. A broad area of low pressure, Invest AL93, is centered over the NE Gulf near 30N86W, and continues to generate numerous moderate to strong convection over southern Alabama and Mississippi, and SE Louisiana as well as adjacent offshore waters. Scattered moderate convection is elsewhere across the E Gulf and NW Gulf. A 1016 mb high pressure is over the central basin near 24N93W and is supporting moderate to locally southerlies over the far NE and NW Gulf and NE winds of the same speed off the Yucatan Peninsula into the Bay of Campeche. Seas basin-wide are slight to moderate per altimeter data. For the forecast, Invest AL93 is forecast to continue moving westward across the northern portion of the Gulf through tonight, reaching the coast of Louisiana by Thursday. If this system moves far enough offshore, environmental conditions over the Gulf appear generally favorable for additional development, and a tropical depression could form over the next day or two before the system moves fully inland by the end of the week. Regardless of development, heavy showers and thunderstorms are expected over the north-central Gulf through Fri, and erratic gusty winds and rough seas will be possible near convection. There is a medium chance of formation within the next 48 hours. ...CARIBBEAN SEA... Please see the Tropical Wave section for more information of the tropical waves moving across the basin. An elongated upper-level low extends from the central Bahamas southward across Cuba and the Windward Passage. This feature is providing lift to support scattered moderate convection over Cuba and adjacent NW Caribbean waters. Fair and stable conditions generally prevail across the rest of the basin. An Atlantic 1025 mb high pressure is centered near 32N61W, and extends a ridge westward to the North Carolina coast. The pressure gradient south of the ridge is forcing fresh to strong easterly winds and seas of 6-10 ft in the central Caribbean south of 16N, with the strongest winds and highest seas occurring off northern Colombia. Moderate to fresh easterly winds and moderate seas are prevalent in the eastern Caribbean. Moderate or weaker winds and slight seas are found elsewhere. For the forecast, fresh to strong trade winds and rough seas will occur over the central Caribbean, including through the Windward Passage, through Thu as a tight pressure gradient prevails between high pressure in the central Atlantic and low pressure over northern Colombia. Strong E winds and rough to locally very rough seas will continue and expand into the west-central basin Thu night through Sat morning as the pressure gradient strengthens further. Periods of near-gale force winds will be possible offshore of northern Colombia and in the Gulf of Venezuela each night and early morning into Sat. Winds and seas will diminish slightly Sat into early next week. Elsewhere, pulsing moderate to fresh E to NE winds are expected in the Gulf of Honduras each afternoon and evening into this weekend. Otherwise, moderate to fresh trade winds and moderate seas will occur in the eastern basin into next week. ...ATLANTIC OCEAN... Please see the Tropical Wave section for more information of the tropical waves moving across the basin. A cold front extends from 31N31W SW to 22N48W with no convection associated with it. The rest of the basin is dominated by an expansive subtropical ridge centered by a 10125 mb Bermuda High and a 1023 mb Azores High. The pressure gradient between this ridge and lower pressures associated with the passage of a tropical wave through the Windward Passage is sustaining fresh to strong E winds and rough seas to 8 ft N of Hispaniola and moderate to fresh easterlies elsewhere S of 25N over the SW N Atlantic waters. Moderate or weaker winds and moderate seas are elsewhere in the subtropics, except between the NW coast of Africa and the Canary Islands where fresh to strong NE winds and rough seas to 9 ft are present. Otherwise, moderate to fresh trades are ongoing between the Lesser Antilles and 40W. For the forecast west of 55W, moderate to locally fresh E to SE winds are expected north of the Greater Antilles to 27N and off the coast of Florida west of 75W through Thu as a strong pressure gradient prevails between high pressure in the central Atlantic and low pressure over northern Colombia. Occasional strong winds and rough seas are expected off the coast of northern Hispaniola into early Sat. Winds will diminish off the coast of Florida by early Fri, and north of the Greater Antilles and over the Bahamas by Sat morning. South of 20N, moderate to occasionally fresh trade winds and moderate seas will occur through this weekend. $$ Ramos