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AXPZ20 KNHC 072034

TWDEP 



Tropical Weather Discussion

NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL

2205 UTC Wed May 7 2025



Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from

03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and

from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following

information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations,

radar, and meteorological analysis.



Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through

2000 UTC.



...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...



The monsoon trough extends from 11.5N73W to 11N88W to 07N129W to

09N110W to 08N120W to 05.5N135W, where it transitions to the 

ITCZ continuing on to beyond 05N140W. Scattered moderate 

isolated strong convection is seen from 03N to 09N east of 94W. 

Scattered moderate to strong convection is noted from 06N to 11N

between 97W and 123W. 



...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...



Weak high pressure of 1018 mb is centered near 28N121W and

extends a broad ridge southeastward near 15N106W. A broad 

surface trough is across southern California, Baja Norte, and the

northern Gulf of California. The modest pressure gradient 

between these two features is producing moderate NW winds along 

and just offshore the Baja Peninsula waters southward beyond Cabo

San Lucas to Cabo Corrientes to near Manzanillo. Seas across 

these waters are 5 to 7 ft in subsiding NW swell. Farther 

offshore of Cabo Corrientes to beyond the Revillagigedo Islands, 

seas are near 8 ft. Across the Gulf of California, gentle to 

moderate cyclonic winds are over the northern Gulf, while light 

and variable wind prevail across the remaining Gulf waters. Seas 

in the Gulf are 3 ft or less except for higher seas of 3 to 5 ft 

in S swell are in the entrance. Elsewhere across the remaining 

Mexican waters to Tehuantepec, winds are light to gentle along 

with seas of 5 to 6 ft in merging NW and SW swell.



For the forecast, a broad and weak ridge extending southeastward

to offshore of southwestern Mexico will change little through 

Thu before new high pressure offshore of California builds 

modestly across the Baja California waters Thu night through the 

upcoming weekend. NW swell moving through the offshore waters 

will continue to subside through tonight. Looking ahead, strong 

northerly gap winds will return to Tehuantepec Sat morning, 

leading to a late season northerly gale event Sat night and again

Sun night. 



...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, 

AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...



Monsoonal winds continue to initiate scattered showers and 

thunderstorms across the area waters south of 09N and east of 94W

this afternoon. Light and variable winds generally prevail north

of the monsoon trough near 11N. Gentle to moderate E are 

occurring across the Papagayo region. Gentle to moderate SW to S 

winds prevail across most of the waters south of the trough. Seas

of 5 to 6 ft in SW swell are over the Central American offshore 

waters, except for higher seas of 7 to 8 ft in S to SW swell 

near the Galapagos Islands and adjacent waters south of the

Equator.



For the forecast, gentle to locally moderate breezes will 

persist across the waters off Central America, Colombia and 

Ecuador through Thu night before winds diminishing slightly S of

10N through Mon. Moderate SW swell is entering the regional 

waters today and will build across the area waters through Thu. 

Fresh easterly gap winds will return to the Papagayo region over 

the weekend becoming strong Mon night. 



...REMAINDER OF THE AREA....



A broad high pressure ridge continues over the regional waters W

of 106W, centered on a weak 1018 mb high near 28N121W. A cold

front has begun to stall just north of the local northwestern

waters. Moderate to locally fresh N to NE winds prevail west of 

about 132W and north of 06N, where seas are 5 to 7 ft in N swell.

Moderate to fresh NE trade winds are occurring from 09N to 18N 

between 115W and 132W. Seas in this zone are 6 to 8 ft in NW to N

swell. Elsewhere north of 10N and W of 110W winds are moderate 

or lighter with seas of 6 to 8 ft in subsiding NW to N swell. 

Scattered moderate to strong thunderstorms remain active from 06N

to 11N between 97W and 123W. Mainly moderate southerly winds 

prevail south of the ITCZ and monsoon trough where seas are 5 to

7 ft. 



For the forecast, the weakening high pressure ridge across the 

region W of 110W will generally persist through Thu. A slow

moving weak cold front will approach 30N140W late Fri night or 

early Sat. High pressure building behind it will overtake the 

weakening front through Sun night. A tightening pressure gradient

spreading across the western and northwestern waters will act to

expand the areal coverage of the fresh trade winds northward to 

near 26N by Sun morning. Seas with these trades are expected to 

remain in the 6 to 8 ft range.



$$

Stripling