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AXNT20 KNHC 072300

TWDAT 



Tropical Weather Discussion

NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL

0015 UTC Thu May 8 2025



Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America

Gulf of America, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South

America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the

Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite

imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.



Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 

2130 UTC.



...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... 



The monsoon trough axis enters the Atlantic near 11.5N15.5W and 

extends southwestward to 02.5N27W to 03N30W. The ITCZ continues 

from 03N30W to 06N43W to the coast of French Guiana near 05N53W. 

Scattered to locally numerous moderate to strong convection is 

ongoing from 00N to 06N between 06W and 24W. Scattered moderate

convection is noted from 06N to 09.5N between 37W and 53W. 



...GULF OF AMERICA...



A weak surface ridge extends from the western Atlantic westward 

across Florida and into the north-central Gulf. A broad area of 

low pressure extends over east-central Mexico and the adjacent

southwestern Gulf waters. A front is stationary across the

northwestern Gulf from near Brownsville, TX to the SE Louisiana

coast and in to southern MS. The resultant pressure gradient 

between these features is supporting fresh to strong SE winds to

the W of 86W and gentle to moderate SE winds elsewhere. Near the

front, strong convection across the Louisiana coast and coastal

waters has shifted eastward into the MS and AL waters north of 

27N, and have left an outflow boundary south of the front 

propagating southward, and now along 25.5N. Little to no 

convection is currently along the outflow boundary. Seas are 6 to

9 ft north of the front offshore of TX and LA, and 5 to 6 ft near

the LA coast. Elsewhere across the W half of the basin, seas are5

to 8 ft in SE waves, except 2 to 4 ft across the Bay of Campeche.

E of 88W seas are 4 to 6 ft, except 3 ft or less over the east 

and northeastern waters.



For the forecast, scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms

producing strong gusty winds are occurring along and just east of

a stationary front over the NW Gulf. This area of weather will

remain active tonight as it continues to shift eastward across 

the north central and into the northeast Gulf. The front will 

remain nearly stationary over the northern Gulf on Thu, then begin

to move SE across the Gulf waters by Fri morning, reaching from 

SE Louisiana to near Tampico, Mexico. Then, the cold front will 

extend from the western Florida Panhandle to near Veracruz, Mexico

by Sat morning, and from the Florida Big Bend to the Yucatan 

Peninsula on Sun morning. Fresh to strong northerly winds and 

moderate to rough seas will follow the front. Smoke from 

agricultural fires in southeastern Mexico is creating hazy 

conditions across some sections of the W and SE Gulf. 



...CARIBBEAN SEA... 



A broad area of low pressure SSW of Bermuda continues to prevent

the Bermuda High from building into the Caribbean basin, and is 

maintaining a weak pressure gradient across the Caribbean. This is 

resulting in moderate trade winds across most of the Caribbean, 

except for localized fresh winds across the Gulf of Honduras and

through the Yucatan Channel, through the Windward Passage, and in 

the lee of Cuba. Seas are 2 to 4 ft across the most of the basin,

except 4 to 5 ft in the Gulf of Honduras and across central

portions. Scattered showers and a few thunderstorms continue in a

west to east band from 14N to 17N to the E of 72W, across the

Leeward Islands and into the adjacent Atlantic, supported by

westerly winds aloft occurring across the base of a broad upper

trough across the Atlantic. 



For the forecast, the broad low pressure between Puerto Rico and

Bermuda will drift NW and weaken through Sat, and will then

finally allow Atlantic high pressure to build across the basin

late Sat through early next week. E to SE winds will pulse fresh 

to strong N of Honduras at night through Fri night. Gentle to 

moderate trades and slight to moderate seas are forecast over the 

remainder of the basin through Fri, including in the Tropical N 

Atlantic, before increasing this weekend as the Atlantic high 

pressure begins to build across the basin. Winds will start to 

increase to fresh speeds in the central Caribbean and off Colombia

Fri night, then to fresh to strong speeds Sat through the 

remainder of the upcoming weekend. Unsettled weather is expected 

to continue over the eastern Caribbean through at least Thu. 



...ATLANTIC OCEAN...



A broad 1014 mb low pressure is centered S-SW of Bermuda near

28N67W, and is a surface reflection of a deep layered upper-level

low over that same location, and broad upper trough cover the

area N of 17N between 55W and 78W. Showers and thunderstorms

remain active to the east of the surface low, N of 24N between 57W

and 66W. Scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms continue

to develop between 48W and a surface trough extending from the 

central Lesser Antilles northeastward to near 22N57W, supported by

divergence aloft just east of the broad upper trough. At the

surface, the pressure gradient between the broad low pressure 

and 1033 mb high pressure centered over the central Atlantic is 

supporting fresh to locally strong southeast to east winds and 

moderate to rough seas to 10 ft north and northeast of the low to

48W. The 1033 mb high drapes across the broad low pressure and

extends a weak ridge southwestward into the Bahamas and central

Florida, where light to gentle anticyclonic winds prevail, except

moderate east winds through the southern and central Bahamas. Otherwise,

a broad surface ridge covers the remainder of the central and 

eastern subtropical Atlantic, with cold front sinking southward

along 30N between 30W to 42W, and a pair of remnant frontal 

troughs north of 21.5N between 12W and 28W. Moderate to locally

fresh trade winds prevail across this area E of 45W, with 

moderate seas to 6 ft.



For the forecast west of 55W, broad low pressure near 28N67W will

drift NW and gradually weaken through Sat. The pressure gradient 

between the low pressure and strong high pressure located over 

the central Atlantic will support fresh to strong E to SE winds 

and moderate to rough seas north and east of the low center

through Thu before diminishing on Fri. The low pressure will 

meander near 27N between 65W and 70W over the next couple of days,

and open up into a trough by Sat morning. A stationary front 

along and just offshore the southeastern U.S. coast will gradually

lift back northwest as warm front on Thu, then may slowly push 

offshore again at the end of the week and into the upcoming 

weekend. 



$$

Stripling