####018005172####
AXPZ20 KNHC 080335

TWDEP 



Tropical Weather Discussion

NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL

0405 UTC Thu May 08 2025



Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from

03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and

from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following

information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations,

radar, and meteorological analysis.



Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through

0330 UTC.



...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...



The monsoon trough axis extends from 10N74W to 09N92W to 09N101W

to 08N109W, where it transitions to the ITCZ and continues to 

09N120W to 06N130W and to beyond 04N140W. Scattered moderate to

isolated strong convection is seen within 60 nm of the trough 

between 104W-107W. Scattered moderate convection is within 

60 nm south of the ITCZ between 87W-94W and between 110W-114W.



...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...



Weak high pressure of 1018 mb is centered near 28N121W. A ridge 

extends southeastward from the high to near 15N106W. A broad 

surface trough is across southern California, Baja Norte, and the

northern Gulf of California. The modest pressure gradient 

between these two features is producing moderate NW winds along 

and just offshore the Baja Peninsula waters southward beyond Cabo

San Lucas to Cabo Corrientes to near Manzanillo. Seas across 

these waters are 5 to 7 ft in subsiding NW swell. Farther 

offshore of Cabo Corrientes to beyond the Revillagigedo Islands, 

seas are near 8 ft. Across the Gulf of California, gentle W to NW 

winds are over the northern section while gentle to moderate 

northwest winds are over the remainder of the Gulf. Seas in the 

Gulf are 3 ft or less except for higher seas of 3 to 5 ft in S 

swell are in the entrance. Elsewhere across the remaining Mexican

waters to Tehuantepec, winds are light to gentle along with seas

of 5 to 6 ft in merging NW and SW swell.



For the forecast, the weak ridge extending southeastward to 

offshore of southwestern Mexico will change little through Thu 

before new high pressure offshore of California builds modestly 

across the Baja California waters Thu night through the upcoming 

weekend. NW swell moving through the offshore waters will 

continue to subside through tonight. Looking ahead, strong 

northerly gap winds will return to Tehuantepec Sat morning, 

leading to a late season northerly gale event Sat night and again

Sun night. 



...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, 

AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...



Monsoonal winds are leading to the development of scattered 

showers and thunderstorms over the waters from 05N to 09N

between 87W and 97W. Similar activity is along the coast of 

Costa Rica. Latest scatterometer satellite data shows light

to gentle SE to S winds in the Papagayo region. Gentle to 

moderate S to SW winds prevail across most of the waters south 

of the trough. Seas of 5 to 6 ft in SW swell are over the Central

American offshore waters, except for higher seas of 7 to 8 ft in

S to SW swell near the Galapagos Islands and adjacent waters 

south of the Equator.



For the forecast, gentle to locally moderate breezes will 

persist across the waters off Central America, Colombia and 

Ecuador through Thu night before winds diminishing slightly

S of 10N through Mon. Moderate SW swell is entering the regional

waters today and will build across the area waters through Thu. 

Fresh easterly gap winds will return to the Papagayo region over 

the weekend becoming strong Mon night. 



...REMAINDER OF THE AREA....



A broad high pressure ridge continues over the waters W of

about 108W, centered on a weak 1018 mb high that is analyzed

near 27N122W. A dissipating front is just northwest of the 

discussion area. Moderate to locally fresh N to NE winds prevail

west of about 130W and north of 05N, where seas are 5 to 7 ft in

N swell. Moderate to fresh NE trade winds are exist from 09N to 

15N between 112W and 130W. Seas over this part of the area 

6 to 8 ft in NW to N swell. Elsewhere north of 10N and W of 110W

winds are moderate or lighter along with seas of 6 to 8 ft in 

subsiding NW to N swell. Clusters of scattered moderate to

isolated strong convection is noted from 06N to 12N between 100W

and 115W. Mainly moderate southerly winds prevail south of the 

ITCZ and monsoon trough where seas are 5 to 7 ft. 



For the forecast, the weakening high pressure ridge across the 

region W of 110W will generally persist through Thu. A slow

moving weak cold front will approach 30N140W late Fri night or 

early Sat. High pressure building behind it will overtake the 

weakening front through Sun night. A tightening pressure gradient

spreading across the western and northwestern waters will act to

expand the areal coverage of the fresh trade winds northward to 

near 26N by Sun morning. Seas with these trades are expected to 

remain in the 6 to 8 ft range.



$$

Aguirre