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AXNT20 KNHC 080607

TWDAT 



Tropical Weather Discussion

NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL

0615 UTC Thu May 8 2025



Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America

Gulf of America, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South

America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the

Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite

imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.



Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 

0550 UTC.



...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... 



The monsoon trough axis enters the Atlantic near 07N12W and 

extends southwestward to 03N18W to 02N24W. The ITCZ continues 

from 02N24W to 02N38W to the coast of Brazil near 01N50W. 

Scattered to numerous moderate to strong convection is ongoing 

from 01S to 07N between 00W and 21W. Scattered moderate 

convection is noted from 05N to 10N between 36W and 53W. 



...GULF OF AMERICA...



A stationary front extending the Florida Panhandle to across the 

north-central offshore zones to just offshore Tampico and 

Veracruz is supporting scattered heavy showers and isolated 

thunderstorms with gusty winds to near gale force north of the 

front in the Alabama and Florida Panhandle coastal waters.  

Ahead of the front, over the offshores N of the Yucatan Peninsula

and in the eastern Bay of Campeche, winds are moderate to fresh

from the ESE. Moderate or weaker winds are elsewhere away from the

frontal boudary. Recent altimeter data show moderate to rough 

seas in the western half of the basin, being the highest seas over

the Texas offshore waters. Buoy data show 3 to 6 ft E of 90W. 



For the forecast, the front will remain nearly stationary through

Thu, then begin to move SE across the Gulf waters by Fri morning,

reaching from SE Louisiana to near Tampico, Mexico. Then, the 

cold front will extend from the western Florida Panhandle to near 

Veracruz, Mexico by Sat morning, and from the Florida Big Bend to 

the Yucatan Peninsula on Sun morning. Fresh to strong northerly 

winds and moderate to rough seas will follow the front through 

Sat. Smoke from agricultural fires in southeastern Mexico is 

creating hazy conditions in some sections of the W and SE Gulf. 



...CARIBBEAN SEA... 



A broad area of low pressure SSW of Bermuda continues to prevent

the Bermuda High from building into the basin, and is maintaining

a weak pressure gradient across the Caribbean. This is resulting 

in gentle to moderate trade winds across most of the Caribbean, 

except for localized fresh to strong winds across the Gulf of 

Honduras and fresh NE winds through the Windward Passage, and in 

the lee of Cuba. Seas are 2 to 4 ft across the most of the basin, 

except 4 to 5 ft in the Gulf of Honduras. Scattered showers are

ongoing offshore Colombia and Panama and in the SE Caribbean. 



For the forecast, pulsing east to southeast winds to fresh to 

strong speeds are expected N of Honduras at night through Fri 

night. Gentle to moderate trades and slight to moderate seas are 

forecast over the remainder of the basin through Fri, including in

the Tropical N Atlantic, before increasing this weekend as the 

Atlantic high pressure builds westward. As a result, winds will 

start to increase to fresh speeds in the central Caribbean and off

Colombia Fri night, then to fresh to strong speeds Sat through 

the remainder of the upcoming weekend and into next week. 

Unsettled weather is expected to continue over the eastern 

Caribbean through at least Thu. 



...ATLANTIC OCEAN...



The pressure gradient between a 1013 mb low pressure centered 

near 27N67.5W with associated trough and high pressure located 

over the central Atlantic is supporting fresh to strong E to SE 

winds and moderate to rough seas north and east of the low center.

Scattered showers and tstms are E of this trough and another

trough moving across the Leeward Islands, covering an area from

16N to 27N between 46W and 61W. The remainder central and eastern

subtropical Atlantic is under the influence of a broad surface

ridge that is being intersected by a cold front that extends from

31N25W to 30N44W. Moderate to fresh N to NW winds and rough seas

to 10 ft follow this front. Moderate or weaker winds are elsewhere

along with moderate seas.  



For the forecast west of 55W, marine conditions associated with

the low and trough SW of Bermuda will continue to affect the NE

offshore waters on Thu before diminishing by Fri. The low 

pressure will meander near 27N between 65W and 70W over the next 

couple of days, and open up into a trough by Sat morning. A 

stationary front along and just offshore the southeastern U.S. 

coast will gradually lift back northwest as warm front on Thu, 

then may slowly push offshore again at the end of the week and 

into the upcoming weekend. 



$$

Ramos