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AXPZ20 KNHC 080952

TWDEP 



Tropical Weather Discussion

NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL

1005 UTC Thu May 08 2025



Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from

03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and

from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following

information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations,

radar, and meteorological analysis.



Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through

0945 UTC.



...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...



The monsoon trough axis extends from 10N74W to 10N92W to 09N100W

to 09N112W, where it transitions to the ITCZ and continues to

08N126W to 05N135W and to beyond 05N140W. Scattered moderate 

convection is within 60 nm south of the trough between 85W-87W 

and between 104W-110W, also within 60 nm north of the trough 

between 107W-110W, within 60 nm north of the ITCZ between 112W-

115W and within 60 nm south of the ITCZ between 134W-138W.



...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...



Weak high pressure of 1019 mb is centered at 28N121W. A ridge 

extends southeastward from the high to near 15N106W. A broad 

surface trough is across southern California, Baja Norte, and the

northern Gulf of California. The modest pressure gradient 

between these two features is producing moderate NW winds along 

and just offshore the Baja Peninsula waters southward beyond Cabo

San Lucas to Cabo Corrientes to near Manzanillo. Seas across 

these waters are 5 to 7 ft in subsiding NW swell. Farther 

offshore of Cabo Corrientes to beyond the Revillagigedo Islands, 

seas are near 8 ft. Across the Gulf of California, gentle W to NW

winds are over the northern section while gentle to moderate 

northwest winds are over the remainder of the Gulf. Seas in the 

Gulf are 3 ft or less except for higher seas of 3 to 5 ft in S 

swell are in the entrance. Elsewhere across the remaining Mexican

waters to Tehuantepec, winds are light to gentle along with seas

of 5 to 6 ft in merging NW and SW swell.



For the forecast, the weak ridge extending southeastward to 

offshore of southwestern Mexico will change little through 

tonight. Stronger high pressure that is well to the NW of the 

regional waters will build east-southeastward toward Baja 

California Norte starting Fri and though the weekend. Looking 

ahead, strong northerly gap winds will return to Tehuantepec Sat 

morning, leading to a late season northerly gale beginning Sat 

night and possibly lasting through Mon morning. 



...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, 

AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...



Monsoonal winds are assisting in the development of scattered 

showers and thunderstorms generally over the waters from 05N to 

09N between 85W and 99W. Light to gentle SE to S winds are in 

the Papagayo region. Gentle to moderate S to SW winds prevail 

across most of the waters south of the trough. Seas of 5 to 6 ft 

in SW swell are over the Central American offshore waters, except

for higher seas of 7 to 8 ft in S to SW swell near the Galapagos

Islands and adjacent waters south of the Equator.



For the forecast, light to gentle winds across the forecast 

waters will persist into early next week. Moderate SW swell 

propagating through the waters south of the Equator will subside 

today. Moderate to fresh easterly gap winds in the Gulf of 

Papagayo region will change little through the weekend, then 

increase to fresh to strong speeds starting early next week.



...REMAINDER OF THE AREA....



A broad high pressure ridge continues over the waters W of 

about 108W, centered on a weak 1019 mb high that is analyzed at 

28N121W. A 1016 mb low is north of the area very near the Channel

Islands. A trough extends southwestward from the low to 30N124W.

Light winds are near this trough. It is not producing any 

significant convection near 30N. Moderate to locally fresh N to 

NE winds prevail west of about 130W and north of 05N, where seas 

are 5 to 7 ft in N swell per several Sofar Spotter buoy 

observations and on a couple of altimeter satellite data passes 

across these waters. Moderate to fresh NE trade winds are from 

09N to 15N between 112W and 130W. Seas over this part of the 

area 6 to 8 ft in NW to N swell. Elsewhere north of 10N and west 

of 110W winds are moderate or lighter along with seas of 6 to 

8 ft in subsiding NW to N swell. Scattered moderate convection 

is evident from 06N to 11N between 105W and 125W. An overnight 

scatterometer satellite data pass indicates fresh N to NE winds 

near the convection that is north of the monsoon trough, and 

moderate to fresh inflow southerly winds near the convection 

that is south of the trough. Mainly moderate southerly winds 

prevail south of the ITCZ and monsoon trough where seas are 5 to 

7 ft. 



For the forecast, the weakening high pressure ridge across the 

region W of 110W will change little through tonight. A slow 

moving weak cold front, or trough will approach 30N140W on Fri 

night, but no significant impacts to winds and seas near that 

location will be expected with this feature. High pressure 

centered to its NW will tend to bridge over the weakening 

boundary during the weekend. A tightening pressure gradient 

spreading across the western and northwestern waters will act to 

expand the areal coverage of the fresh trade winds northward to 

near 26N by Sun morning. Seas with these trades are expected to 

remain in the 6 to 8 ft range.



$$

Aguirre