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AXNT20 KNHC 081706

TWDAT 



Tropical Weather Discussion

NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL

1815 UTC Thu May 8 2025



Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America

Gulf of America, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South

America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the

Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite

imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.



Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 

1706 UTC.



...SPECIAL FEATURES...



Meteo-France Gale Warning: Cyclonic winds at times to gale-force

with severe gusts are forecast in the Irving High Seas Forecast

zone until 09/00 UTC. Rough to very rough seas may accompany this

system, anchored by a 1007 mb occluded low centered near 

33.5N28W. For more details, refer to the Meteo- France High Seas 

Forecast listed on the website https://wwmiws.wmo.int



...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... 



The monsoon trough axis enters the Atlantic near 10N14W and 

extends southwestward to 03N26W. The ITCZ continues from 03N26W 

to the coast of Brazil near 04N50W. Scattered to numerous 

moderate to strong convection is ongoing from 01S to 07N between 

00W and 21W. Scattered to numerous moderate convection is noted 

from 00N to 06N east of 28W. Similar convection is noted from 05N 

to 09N between 37W and 46W.



...GULF OF AMERICA...



Low pressure 1015 mb is centered near Milton, Florida with a 

stationary dissipating front from the low to South Padre Island, 

Texas, continuing as a trough southward off Veracruz. Scattered 

moderate convection is depicted along the dissipating front and

over the NE Gulf. Moderate to fresh winds are noted NW of the 

Yucatan Peninsula, with gentle to moderate winds elsewhere 

including on either side of the front. Seas are 3 to 6 ft west of

87W and 2 to 3 ft elsewhere.



For the forecast, a frontal boundary will remain nearly 

stationary across the northern Gulf waters today, then begin to 

move SE across the basin by Fri morning, reaching from SE 

Louisiana to near Tampico, Mexico. Then, the cold front will 

extend from the western Florida Panhandle to near Veracruz, Mexico

by Sat morning, and from the Florida Big Bend to the Yucatan 

Peninsula on Sun morning. Fresh to strong northerly winds and 

moderate to rough seas will follow the front through Sat. Smoke 

from agricultural fires in southeastern Mexico is creating hazy 

conditions in parts of the W and SE Gulf.



...CARIBBEAN SEA... 



A broad area of low pressure SSW of Bermuda continues to prevent

the Bermuda High from building into the basin, and is maintaining

a weak pressure gradient across the Caribbean. This is resulting 

in gentle to moderate trade winds across most of the Caribbean, 

except for localized fresh to strong winds across the Gulf of 

Honduras and fresh NE winds through the Windward Passage,in the 

lee of eastern Cuba, and south of Dominican Republic. Seas are 2 

to 4 ft across the most of the basin, except 4 to 6 ft in the 

Gulf of Honduras and across the approach to the Windward Passage. 

Scattered showers are ongoing offshore Colombia and Panama and in 

the SE Caribbean. 



For the forecast, pulsing east to southeast winds to fresh to 

strong speeds are expected N of Honduras at night through Sat 

evening. Gentle to moderate trades and slight to moderate seas are

forecast over the remainder of the basin through Fri, including 

in the Tropical N Atlantic, before increasing this weekend as the 

Atlantic high pressure builds westward. As a result, winds will 

start to increase to fresh speeds in the central Caribbean and off

Colombia Fri night, then to fresh to strong speeds Sat through 

the remainder of the upcoming weekend and into next week. 

Unsettled weather is expected to continue over the eastern 

Caribbean through at least today. 



...ATLANTIC OCEAN...



The pressure gradient between a 1015 mb low pressure centered 

near 26.5N67W with associated trough and high pressure located 

over the central Atlantic is supporting diminishing fresh to 

locally strong E to SE winds and moderate to rough seas north and 

east of the low center. Moderate to fresh winds are also west of 

the low and trough from 25N to 30N between the features and 71W. 

Another trough is analyzed east of the Leeward Islands. The 

pressure gradient between this trough and the aforementioned high 

pressure is supporting fresh to locally strong winds east of the 

trough, north of 17N between 49W and 55W. Scattered moderate 

convection is covering an area from 16N to 26.5N between 53W and 

61W. The remainder central and eastern subtropical Atlantic is 

under the influence of a broad surface ridge that is being 

intersected by a cold front that extends from 31N25W to 27.5N35W 

to 31N47W. Moderate to fresh NW to N winds are found from 27N to 

29N, while fresh to strong winds are found from 29N to 31N. Rough 

seas to 12 ft follow this front S of 31N, with higher values NE of

the area including near-gale winds in the W quadrant of the low 

in Meteo-France's forecast area. Moderate or weaker winds are 

elsewhere along with moderate seas, except slight seas off the SE 

U.S. coast.



For the forecast west of 55W, the pressure gradient between a 

1015 mb low pressure centered near 26.5N67W with associated trough

and high pressure located over the central Atlantic is supporting

fresh to locally strong E to SE winds and moderate to rough seas 

NE of the low center. These marine conditions will continue to 

affect the NE waters today before diminishing by Fri. The low 

pressure will meander near 27N between 65W and 70W through Fri, 

and open up into a trough by Sat morning. A stationary front along

and just offshore the southeastern U.S. coast will gradually lift

back northwest as warm front today, then may slowly push offshore

again at the end of the week and into the upcoming weekend. 

weekend. 



$$

KRV