####018004906####
AXNT20 KNHC 082222

TWDAT 



Tropical Weather Discussion

NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL

0015 UTC Fri May 9 2025



Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America

Gulf of America, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South

America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the

Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite

imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.



Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 

2200 UTC.



...SPECIAL FEATURES...



Meteo-France Gale Warning: Cyclonic winds at times to gale-force

with severe gusts are forecast in the Irving High Seas Forecast

zone until 09/0000 UTC. Rough to very rough seas may accompany 

this system, anchored by a 1005 mb occluded low centered near 

33N28W. Fresh to strong W winds and seas 8 ft or more extend

southward to 28N between 25W-35W. For more details, refer to the 

Meteo-France High Seas Forecast listed on the website 

https://wwmiws.wmo.int



...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... 



The monsoon trough axis enters the Atlantic along the coast of

Senegal near 13N17W and extends southwestward to 04N28W. The ITCZ

continues from 04N28W to 02N49W. Scattered moderate isolated strong

convection is ongoing from 02N-08N east of 18W. Scattered moderate

convection is noted from 00N-02N between 38W-43W and from 05N-09N

between 46W-50W.



...GULF OF AMERICA...



As of 2100 UTC, a dissipated stationary front extends from the

Florida panhandle to the Texas-Mexico border. Numerous moderate

scattered strong convection is noted north of 25N west of 90W. A

pre-frontal trough is also analyzed from 28N87W to the Florida Big

Bend near 29N83W. Scattered moderate convection is occurring 

north of 28N east of 87W. Strong to gale force gusts and large 

steep waves are possible in the vicinity of these thunderstorms. 

Away from the deep convection, winds across the Gulf are gentle to

moderate with seas 2-5 ft.



For the forecast, a frontal boundary located over the northern 

Gulf will continue to dissipate tonight. A cold front is currently

reaching the NW Gulf. This system will begin to move across the 

western Gulf on Fri, with a low developing along the front near SE

Louisiana. The low will meander over the NE Gulf through Sun 

while the front will move eastward across the western half of the 

basin. By Mon, the low is forecast to move northward and the front

will continue to move across the eastern Gulf. A band of showers 

and thunderstorm could be associated with the front. Fresh to 

strong northerly winds and moderate to rough seas are expected in 

the wake of the front through Sat night. Smoke from agricultural 

fires in southeastern Mexico is creating hazy conditions in parts 

of the Gulf region. 



...CARIBBEAN SEA... 



A weak north-south pressure gradient is causing only gentle to

moderate trades across the Caribbean this afternoon. Seas are 2-4

ft. No significant deep convection is occurring this afternoon

over the Caribbean.



For the forecast, pulsing fresh to locally strong east to 

southeast winds are expected just N of Honduras at night through 

Sat night. Gentle to moderate trades and slight to moderate seas 

are forecast over the remainder of the basin through Fri, 

including the waters E of the Lesser Antilles. Expect increasing 

winds and building seas, mainly over the south-central Caribbean, 

including off Colombia this upcoming weekend as the Atlantic high 

pressure builds westward.



...ATLANTIC OCEAN...



See above for details about a Gale Warning in the eastern Atlantic

through 0000 UTC on the 9th.



A surface trough along 60W from 17N-24N is interacting with an

upper-level trough to produce scattered moderate convection from

19N-25N between 55W-60W. Another trough is along 67W north of 24N

with a weak 1015 mb low centered at 26N67W. A moderate pressure

gradient between these two troughs and a 1033 mb Bermuda-Azores

High at 41N47W is causing fresh to strong E to NE winds north of

20N between 45W-65W and seas 6-8 ft. Elsewhere, winds across the

tropical N Atlantic are gentle to moderate with seas 4-7 ft. 



For the forecast west of 55W, the pressure gradient between a 

1015 mb low pressure centered near 26.5N67W and high pressure of 

1034 mb located over the central Atlantic is supporting fresh to 

locally strong E to SE winds and moderate to rough seas NE of the 

low center. These marine conditions will continue to affect the NE

waters tonight before diminishing by Fri. The low pressure will 

meander near 27N between 65W and 70W through Fri, and open up into

a trough by Sat morning. Then, the Atlantic high pressure will 

build westward toward the Bahamas this upcoming weekend. weekend. 



$$

Landsea