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AXNT20 KNHC 091638

TWDAT 



Tropical Weather Discussion

NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL

1815 UTC Fri May 9 2025



Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America

Gulf of America, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South

America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the

Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite

imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.



Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 

1620 UTC.



...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... 



The monsoon trough axis enters the Atlantic near 11N15W and 

extends southwestward to 05N20W. The ITCZ stretches from 05N20W 

to 00N51W. Scattered moderate convection is present south of 04N 

and west of 40W.



GULF OF AMERICA...



At 1500 UTC, 1010 mb low pressure is centered near 26N95W. A cold

front extends from the low pressure southeast to Tampico, Mexico.

A stalled front extends northeast to south-central Louisiana.

Scattered moderate isolated strong convection is from 19N to 23N

west of 92W, including across coastal Mexico. Scattered moderate

convection is north of 22N between 88W and 92W, ahead of the

frontal system. West of the fronts and low, fresh to strong NW

winds and building seas of 4-7 ft prevail. East of the fronts an

low, moderate to locally fresh SE winds and 2-4 ft seas prevail.



For the forecast, the aforementioned cold front will slowly 

progress to the south and east into early next week. Widespread 

fresh to strong N to NE winds are expected in the wake of the 

front through Sat, with the most persistent strong winds occurring

west of 95W offshore of Mexico into early Sat. Locally rough seas

may accompany these winds, especially near Tampico and Veracruz. 

Winds will diminish by early Sun. Farther east, low pressure looks

to strengthen in the eastern Gulf on Sat, producing fresh to 

strong winds surrounding the low as it moves northeastward through

the basin into early next week. Elsewhere, pulsing fresh to 

strong E to NE winds are expected north of the Yucatan Peninsula 

into early Sat. 



CARIBBEAN SEA... 



Retreating high pressure north of the Caribbean supports gentle 

to moderate trades and 3-6 ft seas across the basin. Winds may 

pulse to fresh speeds in the Gulf of Honduras and in the south-

central Caribbean off the coast of Colombia. 



For the forecast, fresh to strong E to SE winds will pulse in the

Gulf of Honduras nightly into Sun, ahead of a cold front moving 

southeastward through the Gulf of America. Elsewhere, strong E to 

NE winds will pulse offshore of Colombia and through the Gulf of 

Venezuela through Sat morning. Fresh to strong winds and rough 

seas are expected to expand across much of the central Caribbean 

Sat through early next week as high pressure strengthens north of 

the area. Fresh to locally strong NE winds will also pulse through

the Windward Passage into early next week.



ATLANTIC OCEAN...



1015 mb low pressure is centered near 26N68W. No significant

weather is near this low. A cold front is approaching the Canary

Islands in the far east Atlantic, followed by strong NW winds and

8-12 ft seas. The tropical Atlantic is characterized by gentle to

moderate trades and 4-7 ft seas. 



For the forecast west of 55W, moderate to fresh SE winds will 

pulse and locally rough seas are expected east of 65W into Sun as 

a tight pressure gradient prevails between high pressure in the 

central Atlantic and developing low pressure east of the Bahamas. 

Farther west, moderate to fresh SE winds are slated to develop 

offshore of Florida and the Bahamas by Sat night ahead of a cold 

front moving through the eastern Gulf of America. Looking ahead, 

strong S winds may develop offshore of northern Florida early next

week as the aforementioned cold front moves into the western 

Atlantic. 



$$

Mahoney