####018004723####
AXNT20 KNHC 100540

TWDAT 



Tropical Weather Discussion

NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL

0615 UTC Sat May 10 2025



Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America

Gulf of America, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South

America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the

Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite

imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.



Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 

0600 UTC.



...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... 



The monsoon trough axis enters the Atlantic through the coast of

Guinea near 09N13W and extends southwestward to 06N15W, where it

transitions to the ITCZ. The ITCZ then continues to 01N50W.

Scattered moderate and isolated strong convection is observed from

01-07N between 09-37W. More scattered moderate convection is also

observed from the Equator to 04N between 37-50W.



GULF OF AMERICA...



At 0000 UTC, a 1008 mb low pressure was centered near 29N90W. A 

cold front extends from the low center to the south-central Bay of

Campeche. A wide band of showers and thunderstorms, with gusty 

winds to gale force, is in the NE Gulf ahead of the front and N of

27N. A swath of fresh to strong N to NW winds and seas of 4-8 ft

follow the front. Ahead of the front, SE winds are moderate to

fresh with seas of 2-5 ft.



For the forecast, a cold front extends from a 1008 mb low pres 

near 29N90W to the southern coast of the Bay of Campeche near 

18N95W. Strong storms are affecting the NE Gulf waters, producing 

gusty winds and frequent lightning. Fresh to strong N winds will 

continue to affect much of the western Gulf through early Sat. 

However, the most persistent strong winds will continue off 

Veracruz into Sat afternoon. Locally rough seas may accompany 

these winds, especially near Tampico and Veracruz. Winds will 

diminish by early Sun. Farther east, low pressure looks to 

strengthen in the eastern Gulf on Sat, producing fresh to strong 

winds surrounding the low as it moves northeastward through the 

basin into early next week. 



CARIBBEAN SEA... 



Isolated moderate convection is occurring in the far SW Caribbean

S of 12N and W of 73W, in the vicinity of the East Pacific monsoon

trough. Scattered moderate convection is also occurring in the NW

Caribbean W of 86W ahead of a cold front moving across the Gulf of

America. Otherwise, the pressure gradient between ridging N of the

Caribbean and the Colombia Low supports moderate to fresh trades

across the central Caribbean, with locally strong winds occurring

offshore NW Colombia. Moderate to fresh NE winds are also

occurring through the Windward Passage, per recent scatterometer

data. Gentle to moderate trades prevail elsewhere. Seas in the 

central Caribbean are 4-7 ft, with 3-5 ft seas elsewhere.



For the forecast, building ridge north of the area will support 

fresh to strong NE-E winds and rough seas across much of the 

central Caribbean through early next week. The strongest winds and

highest seas will occur off NW Colombia. Elsewhere, a moderate 

pressure gradient will sustain fresh to locally strong E winds in 

the Gulf of Honduras tonight and Sat night. Fresh to locally 

strong NE winds will also pulse through the Windward Passage into 

early next week.



ATLANTIC OCEAN...



A weak 1016 mb low pressure is analyzed near 27N68W. No 

significant weather is near this low. A dissipating cold front is

approaching the Canary Islands in the far east Atlantic, followed

by strong NW winds and 9-12 ft seas. The remainder of the 

Atlantic forecast region is under the influence of a 1033 mb high 

pressure located near 39N47W. This system supports moderate to 

fresh trades and moderate seas across much of the Atlantic E of 

60W. Gentle to moderate winds and seas of 3-6 ft prevail W of 60W.



For the forecast west of 55W, the pressure gradient between a 

surface trough along a weak 1016 mb low pressure near 27N64W and a

building ridge in the central Atlantic result in moderate to 

fresh E-SE winds and moderate to locally rough seas east of 65W. 

Winds and seas will diminish this weekend as the ridge builds in. 

Farther west, moderate to fresh SE winds are forecast to develop 

offshore of Florida and the Bahamas by Sat night ahead of a cold 

front moving through the eastern Gulf of America. Looking ahead, 

strong S winds may develop offshore of northern Florida early next

week as the aforementioned cold front moves into the western 

Atlantic. The marine conditions will improve by midweek.



$$

Adams