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AXPZ20 KNHC 100911

TWDEP 



Tropical Weather Discussion

NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL

1005 UTC Sat May 10 2025



Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from

03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and

from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following

information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations,

radar, and meteorological analysis.



Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through

0900 UTC.



...SPECIAL FEATURES...



Gulf of Tehuantepec Gale Warning: A late season gap wind event 

is beginning across the Tehuantepec region as a ridge builds 

across the eastern slopes of the Sierra Madre Mountains in 

Mexico, behind a cold front moving through southern Mexico. 

Winds are forecast to reach gale force later this morning and 

possibly last through Mon morning. Building seas to around 13 ft 

are expected with this event tonight into Sun, with the plume of

seas in excess of 8 ft reaching as far west as 100W on Sun. 



Climatologically, the first gale-force event of the season 

occurs in mid-October, with the final gale-force event occurring 

in late March or early April. Occasionally, gale-force events 

may occur as early as September, and as late as May. 



...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...



The monsoon trough extends from 09N83W to 09N100W to 07N110W. 

The ITCZ extends from 07N110W to beyond 06N140W. Scattered 

moderate convection is active from 06N to 10N between 91W and 

98W.



...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...



A line of thunderstorms is observed passing through the Gulf of

Tehuantepec, indicative of the leading edge of a cold front

moving through southern Mexico. It is likely fresh N winds follow

the front so far this morning, with building seas. Farther north,

a surface ridge extends from 1023 mb high pressure near 35N130W 

southeastward toward the Revillagigedo Islands. This pattern is 

supporting gentle to moderate NW breezes north of 20N and light 

breezes farther south outside of the Gulf of Tehuantepec. Seas 

are 4 to 6 ft overall, except for 2 to 4 ft in the Gulf of 

California.



For the forecast, aside from the gale-force gap wind event in the

Gulf of Tehuantepec described in the Special Features section, a 

ridge will continue to dominate the offshore waters of Baja 

California this weekend supporting gentle to moderate NW winds. 

By Mon, strengthening high pressure west of area should enhance 

the NW winds to fresh conditions west of the Baja California 

peninsula. Moderate or weaker winds and moderate seas, primarily 

in SW swell, will prevail elsewhere. 



...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, 

AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...



Clusters of thunderstorms are active off northwest Nicaragua and

the Gulf of Fonseca, and off western Panama. Gentle to moderate 

NE to E winds are noted offshore Nicaragua and downwind to about 

90W while light and variable winds are seen elsewhere across the 

Central America and Colombia offshore waters. Gentle to moderate 

southerly winds are observed per scatterometer data between 

Ecuador and the Galapagos Islands. Seas are generally 5 to 7 ft 

in SW swell. 



For the forecast, moderate to fresh NE to E winds are expected 

in the Papagayo region most of the forecast period, increasing to

fresh to strong speeds Sun night, and again Mon night. Elsewhere

mainly light to gentle winds are expected through early next 

week, except between Ecuador and the Galapagos Islands where 

gentle to moderate southerly winds are expected. Slight to 

moderate seas, primarily in SW swell, will prevail over the next 

several days. 



...REMAINDER OF THE AREA....



A ridge extends from a 1023 mb high pressure located north of 

area near 35N130W and covers the waters north of the ITCZ and

west of 110W. The pressure gradient between the ridge and lower 

pressure in the vicinity of the ITCZ is forcing only moderate to 

fresh NE trades with seas 7 to 8 ft in mixed wind waves and NW 

swell from 09N to 15N west of 120W. Elsewhere, winds are gentle 

to moderate and seas are 5 to 7 ft in mixed swell.



For the forecast, a ridge will continue to dominate most of the

waters north of the ITCZ and west of 110W through early next 

week, supporting moderate to fresh NE to E winds across the trade

wind zone with seas in the 6 to 8 ft range. 



$$

Christensen