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AXNT20 KNHC 101042

TWDAT 



Tropical Weather Discussion

NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL

1215 UTC Sat May 10 2025



Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America

Gulf of America, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South

America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the

Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite

imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.



Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 

1025 UTC.



...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... 



The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic through the coast of Guinea

near 09N13W and continues southwestward to 06N15W. The ITCZ

stretches from 06N15W to 02N30W and to 00N50W. Moderate scattered

convection is evident south of 06N and east of 45W.



GULF OF AMERICA...



A cold front extends from a 1008 mb low pressure centered near 

the mouth of the Mississippi River to western Yucatan and the 

eastern Bay of Campeche. A strong line of showers and 

thunderstorms extend from the Big Bend area of Florida to 23N89W. 

These storms are likely to produce frequent lightning strikes, 

gusty winds to gale force and suddenly higher seas. Fresh to 

locally strong northerly winds are found behind the front, with 

the highest winds occurring off Veracruz. Seas in these waters are

4-8 ft. Elsewhere, moderate or weaker winds and slight to 

moderate seas prevail.



For the forecast, fresh to strong NW-N winds will continue to

affect the SW Gulf waters, especially off Veracruz. Locally

rough seas may accompany these winds. Winds will diminish by

early Sun. The low pressure is forecast to move northward into the

southern United States over the next couple of days and drag the

cold front across the eastern Gulf. The front will depart the

basin early next week. Fresh to strong S winds are expected ahead

of the front today into Sun. 



CARIBBEAN SEA... 



A few showers and isolated thunderstorms are noted in the Gulf of

Honduras, while generally dry conditions are prevalent in the rest

of the Caribbean. A building ridge to the north of the basin

supports fresh to strong easterly winds and seas of 4-8 ft in the

central Caribbean and Gulf of Honduras. The strongest winds and

highest seas are occurring off NW Colombia. In the remainder of

the Caribbean, moderate or weaker winds and slight to moderate

seas prevail.



For the forecast, high pressure north of the area will support 

fresh to strong NE-E winds and rough seas across much of the 

central Caribbean through early next week. The strongest winds and

highest seas will occur off NW Colombia. Elsewhere, a moderate 

pressure gradient will sustain fresh to locally strong E winds in 

the Gulf of Honduras early this morning and evening. Fresh to 

locally strong NE winds will also pulse through the Windward 

Passage and off southern Hispaniola into early next week.



ATLANTIC OCEAN...



The pressure gradient between a weak surface trough along 68W and

the strong subtropical ridge in the north Atlantic result in

moderate to fresh E-SE winds and moderate seas between 65W and

50W. A weak ridge positioned north of the Bahamas dominates the

remainder of the SW North Atlantic, sustaining moderate or weaker

winds and moderate seas.



In the eastern Atlantic, a weakening extratropical cyclone

supports fresh to locally strong winds and rough seas north of 25N

and east of 35W. Moderate to locally fresh easterly winds and

moderate seas are found in the trade waters east of 50W.

Elsewhere, moderate or weaker winds and moderate seas are

prevalent.



For the forecast west of 55W, fresh winds and moderate to rough 

seas will shift southward over the next few days, mainly south of 

20N by early next week. Farther west, moderate to fresh SE winds 

are forecast to develop offshore of Florida and the Bahamas by 

tonight ahead of a cold front moving through the eastern Gulf of 

America. Looking ahead, strong S winds and rough seas may develop 

offshore NE Florida early next week as the cold front in the Gulf 

of America moves into the western Atlantic. The marine conditions 

will improve by midweek.



$$

Delgado