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AXPZ20 KNHC 101521

TWDEP 



Tropical Weather Discussion

NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL

1605 UTC Sat May 10 2025



Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from

03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and

from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following

information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations,

radar, and meteorological analysis.



Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through

1500 UTC.



...SPECIAL FEATURES...



Gulf of Tehuantepec Gale Warning: A late season gap wind event 

is ongoing across the Tehuantepec region as a ridge continues to  

build across the eastern slopes of the Sierra Madre Mountains in

Mexico, behind a cold front moving through the central GUlf of

America. Winds are currently reaching minimal gale force, and 

these conditions are expected to last through Mon morning. 

Building seas to around 13 ft are expected with this event 

tonight into Sun, with the plume of seas in excess of 8 ft 

reaching as far west as 100W on Sun. 



Climatologically, the first gale-force event of the season 

occurs in mid-October, with the final gale-force event occurring 

in late March or early April. Occasionally, gale-force events 

may occur as early as September, and as late as May. 



...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...



The monsoon trough extends from a 1008 mb low pressure located 

over northern Colombia near 10N75W to 09N90W to 09N103W. The 

ITCZ continues from 09N103W to 07N120W to beyond 06N140W. 

Scattered moderate convection can be found from 06N to 10N 

between 82W and 85W, from 05N to 09N between 90W and 97W, from

05N to 09N between 108W and 115W, and from 07N to 10N W of 120W. 



...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...



High pressure of 1022 mb located N of area near 35N129W has a 

ridge extending SE toward the Revillagigedo Islands. Under the 

influence of this system, latest scatterometer data indicate 

gentle to moderate NW winds across the offshore waters of Baja 

California. Elsewhere, across the Mexican offshore waters,

including the Gulf of California, light to gentle winds prevail.

Seas are generally 4 to 6 ft, except for 1 to 3 ft in the Gulf 

of California. 



For the forecast, aside from the gale-force gap wind event in the

Gulf of Tehuantepec described in the Special Features section, a 

ridge will continue to dominate the offshore waters of Baja 

California this weekend supporting gentle to moderate NW winds. 

By Mon, strengthening high pressure west of area should enhance 

the NW winds to fresh conditions west of the Baja California 

peninsula. Moderate or weaker winds and moderate seas, primarily 

in SW swell, will prevail elsewhere. 



...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, 

AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...



Clusters of showers and thunderstorms are active offshore SW

Costa Rica, in the Gulf of Fonseca, and eastern El Salvador 

including also the offshore waters. Gentle to moderate E to SE 

winds are noted in Lake Nicaragua and offshore Nicaragua while 

light and variable winds are seen elsewhere across the Central 

America and Colombia offshore waters. Gentle to moderate 

southerly winds are observed per scatterometer data between 

Ecuador and the Galapagos Islands. Seas are generally 5 to 7 ft 

in SW swell. 



For the forecast, moderate to fresh NE to E winds are expected 

in the Papagayo region most of the forecast period, increasing to

fresh to strong speeds Sun night, and again Mon night. Elsewhere

mainly light to gentle winds are expected through early next 

week, except between Ecuador and the Galapagos Islands where 

gentle to moderate southerly winds will persist. Slight to 

moderate seas, primarily in SW swell, will prevail over the next 

several days. 



...REMAINDER OF THE AREA....



A ridge extends from a 1022 mb high pressure located north of 

area near 35N129W and covers the waters north of the ITCZ and 

west of 110W. The pressure gradient between the ridge and lower 

pressure in the vicinity of the ITCZ is forcing only moderate to 

fresh NE trades with seas 7 to 9 ft in mixed NE wind waves and 

NW swell from 06N to 15N west of 130W. Elsewhere, winds are 

gentle to moderate and seas are 5 to 7 ft in mixed swell.



For the forecast, a ridge will continue to dominate most of the

waters north of the ITCZ and west of 110W through early next 

week, supporting moderate to fresh NE to E winds across the trade

wind zone with seas in the 6 to 8 ft range. 



$$

GR