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AXNT20 KNHC 101613

TWDAT 



Tropical Weather Discussion

NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL

1815 UTC Sat May 10 2025



Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America

Gulf of America, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South

America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the

Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite

imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.



Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 

1600 UTC.



...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... 



The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic through the coast of Guinea

near 09N13W and continues southwestward to 05N17W. The ITCZ 

stretches from 05N17W to 01N52W. Scattered moderate convection is

from the equator north of 05N between 17W and 43W.



GULF OF AMERICA...



A cold front extends from 1009 mb low pressure centered at the 

border of Florida and Alabama south to 27N88W, where a stalled

front then continues to the northern coast of the Yucatan 

Peninsula. Scattered moderate convection is north of 23N between

83W and 87W, across much of the NE Gulf waters. Moderate to fresh

SE to S winds prevail across the eastern Gulf ahead of the front,

with 3-5 ft seas. West of the front in the western Gulf, moderate

to fresh NW winds and 5-7 ft seas prevail. In the SW Bay of

Campeche, winds are pulsing to strong speeds and peak seas are to

8 ft. 



For the forecast, the front will meander eastward through early 

next week. Showers and thunderstorms are expected near and to the 

east of the front, leading to strong and erratic winds and rapidly

building seas near convection. Strong to near-gale force NW winds

and rough seas are expected offshore of Veracruz through early 

this afternoon before diminishing. Pulsing fresh N winds will 

occur behind the cold front across the western Gulf into early 

Sun. Farther east, pulsing fresh to strong S winds are expected 

east of the front through Sun as the pressure gradient increases 

with building high pressure in the western Atlantic. Looking 

ahead, the cold front is slated to exit the basin early next week,

allowing high pressure to build in the Gulf of America.



CARIBBEAN SEA... 



Strong trades are evident in the latest scatterometer data in the

south-central Caribbean off the coast of Colombia, with peak seas

to 8 ft. Moderate to fresh winds and 5-7 ft prevail in the

remainder of the central Caribbean. In the eastern and western

Caribbean, trades are mainly moderate with 3-5 ft seas. Trades may

pulse to fresh speeds in the Gulf of Honduras.



For the forecast, fresh to strong trade winds will continue 

across the central Caribbean, including through the Windward 

Passage, this weekend through early next week as a strong pressure

gradient prevails between the Colombian low and building high 

pressure to the north. Periods of near-gale force winds will be 

possible offshore of northwestern Colombia and in the Gulf of 

Venezuela. Building rough seas will occur in tandem with the 

strong winds, with the highest seas expected near and to the west 

of the strongest winds. Elsewhere, fresh to strong SE winds will 

pulse in the Gulf of Honduras into early Sun. 



ATLANTIC OCEAN...



1008 mb low pressure is weakening NE of the Canary Islands. Seas

are 8-10 ft north of 20N east of 34W in moderate to fresh NW

winds. 1020 mb high pressure is centered NE of the Bahamas. Gentle

to moderate trades prevail across the tropical Atlantic, with 4-7

ft seas in open waters. Trades are locally fresh from 16N to 23N

between 40W and 53W. 



For the forecast west of 55W, moderate to locally fresh E to SE 

winds will develop offshore of Florida and north of the Greater 

Antilles tonight into Sun as the pressure gradient strengthens 

between high pressure in the western Atlantic and a complex low 

pressure system in the southeastern United States. Strong winds 

and locally rough seas are expected early next week offshore of 

central and northern Florida ahead of a cold front associated with

the low pressure system. The cold front will enter the western 

Atlantic and lift northeastward by midweek. Elsewhere, pulsing 

moderate to fresh E to SE winds are expected east of 65W through 

Sun, on the periphery of high pressure in the central Atlantic. 

Moderate to fresh trade winds are then expected for areas south of

25N through the middle of next week. 



$$

Mahoney