####018005047####
AXPZ20 KNHC 102119

TWDEP 



Tropical Weather Discussion

NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL

2205 UTC Sat May 10 2025



Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from

03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and

from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following

information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations,

radar, and meteorological analysis.



Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through

2100 UTC.



...SPECIAL FEATURES...



Gulf of Tehuantepec Gale Warning: A late season gap wind event 

is ongoing across the Tehuantepec region as a ridge continues to  

build across the eastern slopes of the Sierra Madre Mountains in

Mexico, and over the western Gulf of America. Winds are currently

reaching minimal gale force, and these conditions are expected 

to last through Mon morning. Building seas to around 13 ft are 

expected with this event tonight into Sun, with the plume of seas

in excess of 8 ft reaching as far west as 100W on Sun. The edge

of an 1634Z ASCAT pass captured N winds of 20 to 30 kt N of 14N 

between 95W and 96W. This indicates peak winds are likely to 35 

kt farther east in the Tehuantepec region.



Climatologically, the first gale-force event of the season 

occurs in mid-October, with the final gale-force event occurring 

in late March or early April. Occasionally, gale-force events 

may occur as early as September, and as late as May. 



...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...



The monsoon trough extends from a 1007 mb low pressure located 

over northern Colombia near 10N75W to 08N101W. The ITCZ continues

from 08N101W to 07N120W to beyond 06N140W. Scattered moderate 

convection can be found from 05N to 09N between 90W and 97W, 

from 05N to 07N between 110W and 115W, and from 06N to 10N W of 

120W. 



...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...



High pressure of 1032 mb located N of Hawaiian Islands has a

ridge extending SE across the offshore waters of Baja California.

Under the influence of this system, recent scatterometer data 

indicate gentle to moderate NW winds W of the Baja California

peninsula. Elsewhere, across the Mexican offshore waters, including

the Gulf of California, light and variable winds prevail. Seas 

are generally 3 to 5 ft, except for 1 to 3 ft in the Gulf of 

California. 



For the forecast, aside from the gale-force gap wind event in the

Gulf of Tehuantepec described in the Special Features section, a 

ridge will continue to dominate the offshore waters of Baja 

California the remainder of the weekend supporting gentle to 

moderate NW winds. By Mon, the high pressure will move eastward

while strengthening. This should enhance the NW winds to fresh 

conditions west of the Baja California peninsula. In the Gulf of

California gentle to moderate southerly winds and slight seas are

expected. Moderate or weaker winds and moderate seas, primarily 

in SW swell, will prevail elsewhere.



...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, 

AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...



Gentle to moderate NE to E winds are noted in Lake Nicaragua and

offshore Nicaragua. Moderate to fresh NE to E winds are observed

downwind of the Gulf of Papagayo to about 87W. Light and variable

winds are seen elsewhere across the Central America and Colombia

offshore waters. Gentle to moderate southerly winds are observed

per scatterometer data between Ecuador and the Galapagos Islands.

Seas are generally 4 to 6 ft in SW swell across the entire region.



For the forecast, moderate to fresh NE to E winds are expected 

in the Papagayo region most of the forecast period, increasing to

fresh to strong speeds at night from Sun night through Tue night. 

Elsewhere mainly light to gentle winds are expected through 

early next week, except between Ecuador and the Galapagos Islands

where gentle to moderate southerly winds will persist. Seas

generated in the Tehuantepec region will propagate across the

western offshore waters of Guatemala and El Salvador on Sun. 

Slight to moderate seas, primarily in SW swell, will prevail 

elsewhere over the next several days. 



...REMAINDER OF THE AREA....



A ridge extends from of 1032 mb located N of Hawaiian Islands 

and covers the waters north of the ITCZ and west of 110W. The 

pressure gradient between the ridge and lower pressure in the 

vicinity of the ITCZ is forcing moderate to fresh NE trades with

seas 7 to 9 ft in mixed NE wind waves and NW swell from 08N to 

12N west of 135W based on altimeter data. Elsewhere, winds are 

gentle to moderate and seas are 5 to 7 ft in mixed swell.



For the forecast, a ridge will continue to dominate most of the

waters north of the ITCZ and west of 110W through early next 

week, supporting moderate to fresh NE to E winds across the trade

wind zone with seas in the 6 to 8 ft range. 



$$

GR