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AXNT20 KNHC 102306

TWDAT 



Tropical Weather Discussion

NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL

0015 UTC Sun May 11 2025



Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America

Gulf of America, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South

America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the

Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite

imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.



Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through

2300 UTC.



...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... 



The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic through the coast of Guinea

near 10N14W and continues southwestward to 04N19W. The ITCZ stretches

from 04N19W to 02N35W to 01N52W. Scattered moderate convection is

from the equator to 06N between 10W and 25W, and from 00N to 04N

between 30W and 42W.



GULF OF AMERICA...



A stationary front extends from a 1010 mb low pressure centered

over SW Alabama to the northern Yucatan Peninsula. Scattered to

numerous showers and thunderstorms, with gusty winds to gale

force, are ahead of the front over the eastern Gulf. This system

is also helping to induce convection over parts of Florida and 

the Yucatan peninsula. Moderate to fresh SE to S winds prevail 

across the eastern Gulf ahead of the front, with 3 to 5 ft seas. 

West of the front, moderate to fresh NW winds and 5 to 7 ft seas

prevail, with the exception of fresh to strong NW to N winds in 

the western Bay of Campeche where seas are 6 to 8 ft. 



For the forecast, the front will meander eastward through early

next week. Showers and thunderstorms are expected near and to the

east of the front, leading to strong and erratic winds and rapidly

building seas near convection. Fresh to strong NW winds and rough

seas will diminish offshore of Veracruz this evening. Pulsing 

fresh N winds will occur behind the cold front across the western

Gulf into early Sun. Farther east, pulsing fresh to strong S to 

SE winds are expected east of the front through Sun as the 

pressure gradient increases with building high pressure in the 

western Atlantic. Looking ahead, the front is slated to exit the 

basin early next week, allowing high pressure to build in the 

Gulf of America. 



CARIBBEAN SEA... 



Recent scatterometer data provide observations of fresh to strong

trade winds in the south-central Caribbean off the coast of 

Colombia, in the vicinity of Cabo Beata, Dominican Republic and 

in the Gulf of Venezuela. Moderate to locally fresh NE to E winds

prevail elsewhere, except in the NW Caribbean where winds are

blowing from the E and SE due to the presence of a frontal 

boundary in the Gulf of America. Seas are 6 to 9 ft in the south-

central Caribbean, and 4 to 6 ft elsewhere, except in the lee of 

Cuba and Puerto Rico where seas are in the 1 to 3 ft range. Some 

showers are thunderstorms are flared-up over the Greater Antilles

while patches of low level moisture, embedded in the trade wind 

flow, are moving westward across the basin producing isolated to 

scattered passing showers. Convection is on increase in the 

Yucatan Channel.



For the forecast, fresh to strong trade winds will occur across 

the central Caribbean, including through the Windward Passage, 

this weekend through early next week as a strong pressure 

gradient prevails between the Colombian low and building high 

pressure to the north. Periods of near-gale force winds will be 

possible offshore of northwestern Colombia and in the Gulf of 

Venezuela. Building rough seas will occur in tandem with the 

strong winds, with the highest seas expected near and to the west

of the strongest winds. Elsewhere, fresh to locally strong SE 

winds will pulse in the Gulf of Honduras into early Sun. 



ATLANTIC OCEAN...



The main feature across the Atlantic is a 1032 mb high pressure

located near 35N47W. The associated ridge dominates most of

waters N of 15N and W of 30W and reaches the NE Caribbean and the

Bahamas. A high pressure cell of 1020 mb is analyzed NE of the 

Bahamas near 28N71W. Farther E, a 1009 mb low pressure is situated

just S of the Madeira Islands. This system will move SE over the

next 24 hours while weakening. The pressure gradient between the

high and the low supports an area of fresh N winds N of 28N 

between 24W and 32W. Seas of 9 to 12 ft are within these winds. 

Fresh to locally strong trades are along the southern periphery 

of the ridge, particularly between 42W and 56W with seas of  

6 to 8. Gentle to moderate trades prevail across the tropical 

Atlantic, with 4 to 7 ft seas in open waters. Elsewhere moderate 

or weaker winds and moderate seas prevail. 



For the forecast west of 55W, moderate to locally fresh E to SE 

winds will develop offshore of Florida and north of the Greater 

Antilles tonight into Sun as the pressure gradient strengthens 

between high pressure in the western Atlantic and a complex low 

pressure system in the southeastern United States. Strong SE to 

S winds and locally rough seas are expected early next week 

offshore of central and northern Florida ahead of a cold front 

associated with the low pressure system. The cold front will 

enter the western Atlantic and lift northeastward by midweek. 

Elsewhere, pulsing moderate to fresh E to SE winds are expected 

east of 65W through Sun, on the periphery of high pressure in the

central Atlantic. Moderate to fresh trade winds are then expected

for areas south of 25N through the middle of next week. 



$$

GR